Models
ZF COM VE CTR SYS IND LTDZFCVINDIAAuto Components
₹547per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹547implied FY26 P/E 2.5× · EV/EBITDA 9.3×
Against CMP ₹2,536.10−78.4%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3175%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹429₹783
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹2,051₹3,044
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 1,493 |
| PV of terminal value | 4,541 |
| Enterprise value | 6,034 |
| less net debt | 192 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 6,226 |
| ÷ 11.38 crore shares | ₹547 |
75% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 565 | 604 | 652 | 710 | 783 |
| 10.50% | 523 | 556 | 595 | 642 | 699 |
| 11.00% | 487 | 515 | 547 | 585 | 631 |
| 11.50% | 456 | 480 | 507 | 539 | 576 |
| 12.00% | 429 | 449 | 472 | 499 | 530 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹2,536.10; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 446 · 542 · 660 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.77 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.57 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.16 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 3,444 | 3,816 | 3,831 | 4,119 | 4,428 | 4,760 | 5,117 | 5,501 | 5,913 |
| growth % | 35.4 | 10.8 | 0.4 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 7.5 |
| EBITDA | 470 | 566 | 631 | 647 | 695 | 747 | 803 | 864 | 928 |
| margin % | 13.7 | 14.8 | 16.5 | 15.7 | 15.7 | 15.7 | 15.7 | 15.7 | 15.7 |
| less depreciation | (105) | (110) | (124) | (132) | (142) | (152) | (164) | (176) | (189) |
| EBIT | 366 | 457 | 507 | 515 | 553 | 595 | 640 | 688 | 739 |
| less tax on EBIT | (131) | (141) | (151) | (162) | (175) | (188) | |||
| NOPAT | 384 | 413 | 444 | 477 | 513 | 551 | |||
| add depreciation | 105 | 110 | 124 | 132 | 142 | 152 | 164 | 176 | 189 |
| less capex | (128) | (195) | (167) | (146) | (155) | (171) | (188) | (207) | (227) |
| less working-capital build | — | (57) | (61) | (66) | (71) | (76) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 171 | (2) | 119 | — | 342 | 364 | 387 | 411 | 437 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 325 | 311 | 298 | 286 | 273 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 0, dividends at 7% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 515 | 553 | 595 | 640 | 688 | 739 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Profit before tax | 553 | 595 | 640 | 688 | 739 | |
| Profit after tax | 517 | 413 | 444 | 477 | 513 | 551 |
| Dividends | (36) | (29) | (31) | (33) | (36) | (39) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 192 | 505 | 838 | 1,192 | 1,567 | 1,966 |
| Working capital | 761 | 818 | 879 | 945 | 1,016 | 1,093 |
| Net block and other assets | 3,473 | 3,486 | 3,505 | 3,529 | 3,559 | 3,597 |
| Debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Equity | 3,691 | 4,075 | 4,487 | 4,931 | 5,408 | 5,921 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) | 0 | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 497 | 535 | 575 | 618 | 664 | |
| Investing (capex) | (155) | (171) | (188) | (207) | (227) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (29) | (31) | (33) | (36) | (39) | |
| Net change in cash | 314 | 333 | 354 | 376 | 399 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 342 | 364 | 387 | 411 | 437 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 7.5% | 15.7% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹547 | (78.4)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.