Models
ZUARI AGRO CHEMICALS LTDZUARIFertilizers & Agrochemicals
₹2,046per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹2,046implied FY26 P/E 9.2× · EV/EBITDA 8.2×
Against CMP ₹220.80+826.8%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies(20.0)%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3172%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹1,579₹2,978
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹175₹346
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 2,605 |
| PV of terminal value | 6,610 |
| Enterprise value | 9,216 |
| less net debt | (609) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 8,607 |
| ÷ 4.21 crore shares | ₹2,046 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 2,116 | 2,273 | 2,461 | 2,690 | 2,978 |
| 10.50% | 1,951 | 2,081 | 2,235 | 2,419 | 2,645 |
| 11.00% | 1,809 | 1,918 | 2,046 | 2,197 | 2,379 |
| 11.50% | 1,686 | 1,779 | 1,887 | 2,012 | 2,161 |
| 12.00% | 1,579 | 1,659 | 1,750 | 1,856 | 1,979 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹220.80; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 1,728 · 2,049 · 2,431 |
| Draws below the CMP | 0% |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.73 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.66 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.03 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 4,553 | 4,595 | 4,436 | 3,200 | 3,040 | 2,888 | 2,743 | 2,606 | 2,476 |
| growth % | 26.8 | 0.9 | (3.5) | (27.9) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) |
| EBITDA | 775 | 356 | 368 | 1,121 | 1,064 | 1,011 | 960 | 912 | 867 |
| margin % | 17.0 | 7.8 | 8.3 | 35.0 | 35.0 | 35.0 | 35.0 | 35.0 | 35.0 |
| less depreciation | (79) | (95) | (102) | (59) | (55) | (52) | (49) | (47) | (45) |
| EBIT | 696 | 261 | 267 | 1,062 | 1,009 | 959 | 911 | 865 | 822 |
| less tax on EBIT | (235) | (223) | (212) | (201) | (191) | (182) | |||
| NOPAT | 828 | 786 | 747 | 710 | 674 | 640 | |||
| add depreciation | 79 | 95 | 102 | 59 | 55 | 52 | 49 | 47 | 45 |
| less capex | (317) | (144) | (105) | (160) | (152) | (124) | (98) | (75) | (53) |
| less working-capital build | — | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (222) | 329 | 407 | — | 695 | 681 | 666 | 651 | 637 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 660 | 582 | 513 | 452 | 398 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 642, dividends at 0.9% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 1,062 | 1,009 | 959 | 911 | 865 | 822 |
| Interest at 14.9% on debt | (96) | (96) | (96) | (96) | (96) | |
| Profit before tax | 914 | 863 | 815 | 770 | 726 | |
| Profit after tax | 920 | 712 | 672 | 635 | 600 | 566 |
| Dividends | (8) | (6) | (6) | (6) | (5) | (5) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 33 | 647 | 1,247 | 1,834 | 2,405 | 2,962 |
| Working capital | 125 | 119 | 113 | 108 | 102 | 97 |
| Net block and other assets | 3,092 | 3,190 | 3,261 | 3,310 | 3,338 | 3,347 |
| Debt | 642 | 642 | 642 | 642 | 642 | 642 |
| Equity | 2,090 | 2,795 | 3,461 | 4,091 | 4,685 | 5,246 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 773 | 730 | 690 | 652 | 616 | |
| Investing (capex) | (152) | (124) | (98) | (75) | (53) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (6) | (6) | (6) | (5) | (5) | |
| Net change in cash | 614 | 600 | 586 | 572 | 557 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 621 | 606 | 592 | 577 | 562 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | -5% | 35% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹2,046 | 826.8% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.