US EIA lifts Brent forecast to $98 as Iran war tightens global supplies

The US EIA has raised its Brent crude forecast to $98/barrel for 2026, an 8% increase from its prior estimate, citing supply disruptions from the US-Israeli war with Iran affecting shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. Brent is projected to average $105/barrel in Q4 2026 — $14 above the previous estimate — with crude-production shutdowns expected at 4.5 million barrels per day, declining to 2.7mbpd by Q1 2027 as alternative export routes like Saudi Arabia's East-West Pipeline restore flows to over 81% of pre-war levels. Brent is forecast to ease to $84/barrel in 2027 as supplies normalise.