Conflict-hit oil supply crisis deepens as nearly half of global output comes from affected countries

Conflict-affected countries produced about 45 million barrels per day in 2025, representing more than 43% of global oil supply, while current Gulf disruptions have reduced oil flows by an estimated 5 million to 7 million barrels per day. Global refining capacity is down roughly 10%, contributing to higher fuel prices, inflationary pressure, declining inventories and increased reliance on U.S. oil supplies.