Global Market: Stagflation fears return as Gulf conflict, higher energy prices cloud global outlook

Oil prices have climbed back to around $100 a barrel, with Brent crude rising nearly 40% in July amid Gulf shipping disruptions, while European natural gas futures hit their highest since March. The US imposed fresh tariffs of 10% and 12.5% on imports from 60 trading partners including the EU and China, compounding inflation concerns and pushing global bond yields to multi-year highs. Traders now expect around two more quarter-point rate hikes each from the ECB and the US Fed, while the World Bank's chief economist warned the conflict could drag global growth down to 1.3% from 2.9%, with Asian and European economies seen as most exposed.