Models
AARON INDUSTRIES LIMITEDAARONIndustrial Manufacturing
₹48per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹48implied FY26 P/E 12.1× · EV/EBITDA 7.3×
Against CMP ₹127.50−62.3%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3170%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹35₹74
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹107₹228
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 38 |
| PV of terminal value | 91 |
| Enterprise value | 129 |
| less net debt | (28) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 101 |
| ÷ 2.09 crore shares | ₹48 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 50 | 54 | 60 | 66 | 74 |
| 10.50% | 45 | 49 | 53 | 58 | 65 |
| 11.00% | 42 | 45 | 48 | 52 | 57 |
| 11.50% | 38 | 41 | 44 | 47 | 51 |
| 12.00% | 35 | 37 | 40 | 43 | 46 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹127.50; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 31 · 47 · 65 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.90 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.38 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.07 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 56 | 63 | 78 | 92 | 109 | 128 | 151 | 178 | 210 |
| growth % | 48.0 | 13.2 | 23.3 | 18.1 | 18.0 | 18.0 | 18.0 | 18.0 | 18.0 |
| EBITDA | 10 | 11 | 15 | 18 | 21 | 25 | 29 | 34 | 40 |
| margin % | 17.1 | 17.6 | 19.0 | 19.2 | 19.2 | 19.2 | 19.2 | 19.2 | 19.2 |
| less depreciation | (1) | (1) | (2) | (4) | (5) | (5) | (6) | (7) | (9) |
| EBIT | 8 | 10 | 13 | 14 | 16 | 19 | 23 | 27 | 32 |
| less tax on EBIT | (6) | (7) | (8) | (9) | (11) | (13) | |||
| NOPAT | 8 | 10 | 11 | 13 | 16 | 19 | |||
| add depreciation | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 9 |
| less capex | (5) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | (2) | (4) | (7) | (11) |
| less working-capital build | — | (4) | (5) | (6) | (7) | (8) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (1) | 6 | 9 | — | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 9 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 9 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 5 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 28, dividends at 18.5% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 14 | 16 | 19 | 23 | 27 | 32 |
| Interest at 8.7% on debt | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | |
| Profit before tax | 14 | 17 | 20 | 24 | 29 | |
| Profit after tax | 7 | 8 | 10 | 12 | 14 | 17 |
| Dividends | (1) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (3) | (3) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 0 | 7 | 14 | 20 | 26 | 30 |
| Working capital | 24 | 28 | 33 | 39 | 46 | 54 |
| Net block and other assets | 67 | 63 | 59 | 57 | 56 | 58 |
| Debt | 28 | 28 | 28 | 28 | 28 | 28 |
| Equity | 49 | 55 | 63 | 73 | 85 | 99 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 9 | 10 | 12 | 15 | 18 | |
| Investing (capex) | 0 | (2) | (4) | (7) | (11) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (3) | (3) | |
| Net change in cash | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 4 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 9 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 7 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 18% | 19.2% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹48 | (62.3)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.