Models
AFCONS INFRASTRUCTURE LTDAFCONSConstruction
₹39per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹39implied FY26 P/E 10.0× · EV/EBITDA 4.0×
Against CMP ₹256.90−84.8%close of 2026-09-20
Growth the CMP implies29.5%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3165%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹15₹87
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹225₹479
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 1,599 |
| PV of terminal value | 2,989 |
| Enterprise value | 4,587 |
| less net debt | (3,153) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 1,434 |
| ÷ 36.78 crore shares | ₹39 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 43 | 51 | 61 | 72 | 87 |
| 10.50% | 34 | 41 | 49 | 58 | 70 |
| 11.00% | 27 | 32 | 39 | 47 | 56 |
| 11.50% | 20 | 25 | 31 | 37 | 45 |
| 12.00% | 15 | 19 | 24 | 29 | 35 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹256.90; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 14 · 39 · 67 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.86 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.49 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.02 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 12,548 | 11,948 | 11,351 | 10,783 | 10,244 | 9,732 | 9,245 |
| growth % | — | (4.8) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) |
| EBITDA | 1,356 | 1,141 | 1,078 | 1,024 | 973 | 925 | 878 |
| margin % | 10.8 | 9.5 | 9.5 | 9.5 | 9.5 | 9.5 | 9.5 |
| less depreciation | (491) | (454) | (431) | (410) | (389) | (370) | (351) |
| EBIT | 865 | 687 | 647 | 615 | 584 | 555 | 527 |
| less tax on EBIT | (242) | (228) | (216) | (206) | (195) | (186) | |
| NOPAT | 445 | 419 | 398 | 378 | 359 | 341 | |
| add depreciation | 491 | 454 | 431 | 410 | 389 | 370 | 351 |
| less capex | 0 | (372) | (352) | (374) | (392) | (408) | (422) |
| less working-capital build | — | 20 | 19 | 18 | 17 | 17 | |
| Free cash flow to firm | (132) | — | 519 | 454 | 394 | 338 | 288 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||
| Present value | 493 | 388 | 303 | 235 | 180 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 3,538, dividends at 36.7% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 687 | 647 | 615 | 584 | 555 | 527 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | (283) | (283) | (283) | (283) | (283) | |
| Profit before tax | 364 | 332 | 301 | 272 | 244 | |
| Profit after tax | 251 | 236 | 215 | 195 | 176 | 158 |
| Dividends | (92) | (87) | (79) | (72) | (65) | (58) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 386 | 635 | 826 | 965 | 1,055 | 1,102 |
| Working capital | 406 | 386 | 366 | 348 | 331 | 314 |
| Net block and other assets | 18,339 | 18,260 | 18,224 | 18,227 | 18,265 | 18,335 |
| Debt | 3,538 | 3,538 | 3,538 | 3,538 | 3,538 | 3,538 |
| Equity | 5,451 | 5,600 | 5,736 | 5,859 | 5,971 | 6,071 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | (0) | 0 | 0 | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 687 | 644 | 603 | 563 | 526 | |
| Investing (capex) | (352) | (374) | (392) | (408) | (422) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (87) | (79) | (72) | (65) | (58) | |
| Net change in cash | 249 | 191 | 139 | 90 | 46 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 336 | 270 | 210 | 155 | 104 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | -5% | 9.5% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹39 | (84.8)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.