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Model Note · AGARWAL INDS CORP LTD. · 11 September 2026Page 1 of 2
Model Note
Prepared by the reader · not a MarketPing document
AGARWAL INDS CORP LTD. Discounted cash flow · base FY26
AGARWAL INDS CORP LTD.
Value per share, this model₹93
CMP 2026-09-10₹434.50
Difference(78.7)%
Growth the CMP implies45.0%/yr
This note states the assumptions and the arithmetic of one model of AGARWAL INDS CORP LTD., built on its filed FY26 consolidated statements. The value is the outcome of the assumptions below and nothing else; it is not a fair value, a target or a recommendation.
Assumptions
Input
This model
Filed reference
Revenue growth, 5 years
-5% a year
FY26 (31.1)% · 5-yr CAGR 12.8%
EBITDA margin
7.1%
FY26 7.1% · 5-yr average 7.4%
Depreciation · capex, % of revenue
3.1% · 7.4%, fading to 1.2× depreciation
FY26 3.1% · 7.4%
Working capital, % of added revenue · tax
7.3% · 21.2%
27 working-capital days · effective 21.2%
Discount rate
11.00%
1-yr beta 1.46
After FY31
5% flat · mid-year discounting
—
Net debt · non-controlling interest · non-operating investments
₹293 · ₹0 · ₹0 cr
FY26 net debt ₹293 cr
Shares
1.50 crore
1.50 crore today
Source: SEBI results XBRL as filed with BSE/NSE, exchange prices; the reader's assumptions.
Projected cash flow to the firm
₹ crore
FY26
FY27
FY28
FY29
FY30
FY31
Revenue
1,652
1,570
1,491
1,417
1,346
1,278
growth %
(31.1)
(5.0)
(5.0)
(5.0)
(5.0)
(5.0)
EBITDA
117
111
106
101
96
91
Depreciation
(52)
(49)
(46)
(44)
(42)
(40)
NOPAT
51
49
47
45
42
40
less capex
(121)
(116)
(97)
(79)
(62)
(48)
less working-capital build
—
6
6
5
5
5
Free cash flow to firm
—
(12)
2
15
27
37
Present value
(11)
2
12
19
23
Source: the model; base year as filed.
Every figure is the reader's model over filed numbers · No rating, target or fair value is expressedmarketping.in
Model Note · AGARWAL INDS CORP LTD. · 11 September 2026Page 2 of 2
From enterprise to equity
PV of the 5 explicit years
44
PV of the terminal value (90% of EV)
387
Enterprise value
432
less net debt
(293)
less non-controlling interest
0
add non-operating investments
0
Equity value
139
÷ 1.50 crore shares
₹93
Source: the model.
Sensitivity, ₹ per share
WACC ↓ · terminal growth →
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
5.5%
6.0%
10.0%
103
129
160
198
245
10.5%
76
98
123
154
191
11.0%
54
72
93
117
147
11.5%
34
49
67
87
112
12.0%
16
30
45
62
82
Source: the model; n/a where terminal growth reaches the discount rate.
Statement
This note is the reader's own model over publicly filed information: SEBI results XBRL filed with BSE and NSE and exchange price data, assembled by MarketPing software; every assumption above is the reader's. It contains no research recommendation, no price target and no opinion by MarketPing on the merits of any security, and is not a research report within the meaning of the SEBI (Research Analysts) Regulations, 2014, Regulation 2(1)(w)(vii). Historical per-share figures are on the current share count. Where a figure is unavailable the table shows a dash rather than an estimate. Nothing here constitutes investment advice, an offer or a solicitation.
Every figure is the reader's model over filed numbers · No rating, target or fair value is expressedmarketping.in
