Models
AGS TRANSACT TECH LTDAGSTRAFinancial Technology (Fintech)
₹-80per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹(80)implied FY24 P/E —× · EV/EBITDA 0.3×
Against CMP ₹2.01−4061.7%close of 2026-09-20
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY29-342%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹(90)₹(75)
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹2₹5
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY25–FY29 free cash flow | 301 |
| PV of terminal value | (233) |
| Enterprise value | 68 |
| less net debt | (1,085) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | (1,017) |
| ÷ 12.77 crore shares | ₹(80) |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | (80) | (82) | (84) | (87) | (90) |
| 10.50% | (78) | (80) | (82) | (84) | (86) |
| 11.00% | (77) | (78) | (80) | (81) | (83) |
| 11.50% | (76) | (77) | (78) | (79) | (81) |
| 12.00% | (75) | (76) | (77) | (78) | (79) |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹2.01; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | (93) · (80) · (66) |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.98 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | +0.18 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.01 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1,772 | 1,671 | 1,471 | 1,397 | 1,327 | 1,261 | 1,198 | 1,138 |
| growth % | — | (5.7) | (12.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) |
| EBITDA | 411 | 396 | 197 | 187 | 178 | 169 | 161 | 152 |
| margin % | 23.2 | 23.7 | 13.4 | 13.4 | 13.4 | 13.4 | 13.4 | 13.4 |
| less depreciation | (252) | (231) | (213) | (203) | (192) | (183) | (174) | (165) |
| EBIT | 159 | 165 | (16) | (15) | (15) | (14) | (13) | (13) |
| less tax on EBIT | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | ||
| NOPAT | (12) | (11) | (11) | (10) | (10) | (9) | ||
| add depreciation | 252 | 231 | 213 | 203 | 192 | 183 | 174 | 165 |
| less capex | (87) | (109) | (52) | (49) | (93) | (132) | (167) | (198) |
| less working-capital build | — | 24 | 23 | 22 | 21 | 20 | ||
| Free cash flow to firm | 238 | 140 | — | 167 | 112 | 63 | 18 | (22) |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | |||
| Present value | 158 | 96 | 48 | 13 | (14) |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 1,120, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | (16) | (15) | (15) | (14) | (13) | (13) |
| Interest at 12.6% on debt | (141) | (141) | (141) | (141) | (141) | |
| Profit before tax | (156) | (156) | (155) | (154) | (154) | |
| Profit after tax | 0 | (117) | (116) | (116) | (115) | (115) |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 34 | 95 | 102 | 59 | (28) | (156) |
| Working capital | 489 | 465 | 441 | 419 | 398 | 378 |
| Net block and other assets | 1,568 | 1,414 | 1,314 | 1,263 | 1,256 | 1,289 |
| Debt | 1,120 | 1,120 | 1,120 | 1,120 | 1,120 | 1,120 |
| Equity | 462 | 345 | 228 | 112 | (3) | (118) |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 110 | 99 | 89 | 79 | 70 | |
| Investing (capex) | (49) | (93) | (132) | (167) | (198) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 61 | 7 | (43) | (88) | (128) | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 61 | 7 | (43) | (88) | (128) | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY24 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | -5% | 13.4% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹(80) | (4061.7)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.