Models
AHLUWALIA CONT IND LTDAHLUCONTConstruction
₹705per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹705implied FY26 P/E 12.8× · EV/EBITDA 10.1×
Against CMP ₹553.80+27.3%close of 8 Oct 2026
Growth the CMP implies3.5%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3184%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹542₹1,032
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹541₹1,078
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 709 |
| PV of terminal value | 3,711 |
| Enterprise value | 4,420 |
| less net debt | 304 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 4,724 |
| ÷ 6.70 crore shares | ₹705 |
84% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 728 | 784 | 850 | 931 | 1,032 |
| 10.50% | 671 | 717 | 771 | 836 | 915 |
| 11.00% | 622 | 660 | 705 | 759 | 822 |
| 11.50% | 579 | 612 | 650 | 694 | 746 |
| 12.00% | 542 | 570 | 602 | 640 | 683 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹553.80; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 562 · 700 · 867 |
| Draws below the CMP | 8% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.71 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.55 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.36 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2,838 | 3,855 | 4,099 | 4,565 | 5,090 | 5,676 | 6,328 | 7,056 | 7,867 |
| growth % | 5.4 | 35.8 | 6.3 | 11.4 | 11.5 | 11.5 | 11.5 | 11.5 | 11.5 |
| EBITDA | 304 | 583 | 342 | 436 | 489 | 545 | 608 | 677 | 755 |
| margin % | 10.7 | 15.1 | 8.4 | 9.6 | 9.6 | 9.6 | 9.6 | 9.6 | 9.6 |
| less depreciation | (39) | (67) | (67) | (98) | (107) | (119) | (133) | (148) | (165) |
| EBIT | 265 | 517 | 276 | 338 | 382 | 426 | 475 | 529 | 590 |
| less tax on EBIT | (88) | (99) | (111) | (123) | (138) | (153) | |||
| NOPAT | 250 | 283 | 315 | 351 | 392 | 437 | |||
| add depreciation | 39 | 67 | 67 | 98 | 107 | 119 | 133 | 148 | 165 |
| less capex | (106) | (114) | (189) | (266) | (295) | (283) | (263) | (236) | (198) |
| less working-capital build | — | (30) | (33) | (37) | (41) | (46) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 195 | 143 | 141 | — | 64 | 118 | 184 | 263 | 357 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 61 | 101 | 141 | 182 | 223 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 4, dividends at 1.4% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 338 | 382 | 426 | 475 | 529 | 590 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | |
| Profit before tax | 381 | 425 | 474 | 529 | 590 | |
| Profit after tax | 266 | 282 | 315 | 351 | 391 | 436 |
| Dividends | (4) | (4) | (4) | (5) | (5) | (6) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 308 | 368 | 482 | 660 | 917 | 1,268 |
| Working capital | 261 | 291 | 325 | 362 | 403 | 450 |
| Net block and other assets | 3,695 | 3,884 | 4,047 | 4,178 | 4,265 | 4,298 |
| Debt | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| Equity | 2,059 | 2,337 | 2,648 | 2,994 | 3,380 | 3,810 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 359 | 401 | 447 | 498 | 555 | |
| Investing (capex) | (295) | (283) | (263) | (236) | (198) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (4) | (4) | (5) | (5) | (6) | |
| Net change in cash | 60 | 114 | 179 | 257 | 351 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 64 | 118 | 183 | 262 | 357 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 11.5% | 9.6% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹705 | 27.3% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.