Models
Akar Auto Industries LimitedBSE 530621Auto Components
₹-57per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹(57)implied FY26 P/E (16.3)× · EV/EBITDA 1.4×
Against CMP ₹88.98−164.2%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY31161%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹(69)₹(32)
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹74₹205
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | (17) |
| PV of terminal value | 46 |
| Enterprise value | 28 |
| less net debt | (90) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | (62) |
| ÷ 1.08 crore shares | ₹(57) |
161% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | (56) | (51) | (46) | (40) | (32) |
| 10.50% | (60) | (56) | (52) | (47) | (41) |
| 11.00% | (64) | (61) | (57) | (53) | (48) |
| 11.50% | (67) | (64) | (61) | (58) | (54) |
| 12.00% | (69) | (67) | (65) | (62) | (59) |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹88.98; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | (65) · (57) · (48) |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.80 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.58 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.03 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 367 | 374 | 377 | 341 | 324 | 308 | 292 | 278 | 264 |
| growth % | 36.6 | 1.8 | 0.9 | (9.6) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) |
| EBITDA | 22 | 24 | 27 | 21 | 19 | 18 | 18 | 17 | 16 |
| margin % | 6.0 | 6.4 | 7.1 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 |
| less depreciation | (4) | (4) | (5) | (5) | (5) | (5) | (4) | (4) | (4) |
| EBIT | 18 | 20 | 22 | 15 | 15 | 14 | 13 | 13 | 12 |
| less tax on EBIT | (12) | (11) | (11) | (10) | (10) | (9) | |||
| NOPAT | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | |||
| add depreciation | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| less capex | (8) | (18) | (9) | (25) | (24) | (18) | (13) | (9) | (5) |
| less working-capital build | — | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 7 | (19) | 6 | — | (12) | (8) | (3) | 1 | 4 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | (12) | (6) | (2) | 1 | 3 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 93, dividends at 70.2% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 15 | 15 | 14 | 13 | 13 | 12 |
| Interest at 14.3% on debt | (13) | (13) | (13) | (13) | (13) | |
| Profit before tax | 1 | 1 | (0) | (1) | (1) | |
| Profit after tax | 1 | 0 | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| Dividends | (1) | (0) | (0) | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 3 | (13) | (23) | (30) | (32) | (31) |
| Working capital | 60 | 57 | 54 | 51 | 49 | 46 |
| Net block and other assets | 193 | 212 | 226 | 234 | 239 | 240 |
| Debt | 93 | 93 | 93 | 93 | 93 | 93 |
| Equity | 51 | 51 | 51 | 51 | 51 | 50 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 8 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 6 | |
| Investing (capex) | (24) | (18) | (13) | (9) | (5) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (0) | (0) | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | (16) | (11) | (6) | (2) | 1 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (15) | (11) | (6) | (2) | 1 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | -5% | 6% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹(57) | (164.2)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.