Models
ALBERT DAVID LIMITEDALBERTDAVDPharmaceuticals & Biotechnology
₹261per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹261implied FY26 P/E 6.6× · EV/EBITDA 32.4×
Against CMP ₹793.70−67.1%close of 9 Oct 2026
Growth the CMP implies—%no growth rate between −20% and 45% a year brings the value to the CMP on your other inputs
Value after FY3162%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹204₹375
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹580₹932
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 68 |
| PV of terminal value | 109 |
| Enterprise value | 177 |
| less net debt | (28) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 149 |
| ÷ 0.57 crore shares | ₹261 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 270 | 289 | 312 | 340 | 375 |
| 10.50% | 250 | 266 | 284 | 307 | 334 |
| 11.00% | 232 | 246 | 261 | 280 | 302 |
| 11.50% | 217 | 228 | 242 | 257 | 275 |
| 12.00% | 204 | 213 | 225 | 238 | 253 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹793.70; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 220 · 262 · 310 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | −0.70 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.69 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.01 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 342 | 362 | 346 | 334 | 322 | 311 | 300 | 289 | 279 |
| growth % | 8.9 | 6.1 | (4.6) | (3.5) | (3.5) | (3.5) | (3.5) | (3.5) | (3.5) |
| EBITDA | 44 | 47 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 |
| margin % | 13.0 | 12.9 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 |
| less depreciation | (9) | (7) | (7) | (10) | (9) | (9) | (9) | (8) | (8) |
| EBIT | 36 | 40 | (4) | (4) | (4) | (4) | (4) | (4) | (4) |
| less tax on EBIT | 17 | 16 | 16 | 15 | 14 | 14 | |||
| NOPAT | 12 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 10 | |||
| add depreciation | 9 | 7 | 7 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 8 |
| less capex | (5) | (11) | (15) | 0 | 0 | (3) | (5) | (8) | (10) |
| less working-capital build | — | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 5 | 35 | (43) | — | 23 | 20 | 17 | 13 | 11 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 22 | 17 | 13 | 9 | 7 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 28, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | (4) | (4) | (4) | (4) | (4) | (4) |
| Interest at 13.7% on debt | (4) | (4) | (4) | (4) | (4) | |
| Profit before tax | (8) | (8) | (8) | (8) | (8) | |
| Profit after tax | (1) | 23 | 23 | 22 | 22 | 21 |
| Dividends | (3) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 0 | 35 | 66 | 93 | 118 | 140 |
| Working capital | 60 | 58 | 56 | 54 | 52 | 50 |
| Net block and other assets | 459 | 450 | 444 | 440 | 439 | 441 |
| Debt | 28 | 28 | 28 | 28 | 28 | 28 |
| Equity | 392 | 415 | 437 | 459 | 481 | 503 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) | 0 | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 34 | 34 | 33 | 32 | 31 | |
| Investing (capex) | 0 | (3) | (5) | (8) | (10) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 34 | 31 | 28 | 25 | 22 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 34 | 31 | 28 | 25 | 22 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | -3.5% | 1.6% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹261 | (67.1)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.