Models
ALFAVISION OVERSEAS (INDIA) LTBSE 531156Agricultural Food & other Products
₹-34per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹(34)implied FY23 P/E —× · EV/EBITDA 19.9×
Against CMP ₹11.80−391.7%close of 8 Oct 2026
Growth the CMP implies—%no growth rate between −20% and 45% a year brings the value to the CMP on your other inputs
Value after FY2870%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹(38)₹(27)
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹4₹17
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY24–FY28 free cash flow | 16 |
| PV of terminal value | 37 |
| Enterprise value | 52 |
| less net debt | (161) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | (109) |
| ÷ 3.15 crore shares | ₹(34) |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | (34) | (33) | (31) | (30) | (27) |
| 10.50% | (35) | (34) | (33) | (32) | (30) |
| 11.00% | (36) | (35) | (34) | (33) | (32) |
| 11.50% | (37) | (36) | (36) | (35) | (34) |
| 12.00% | (38) | (37) | (37) | (36) | (35) |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹11.80; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | (36) · (34) · (32) |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.94 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.33 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.03 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY20 | FY21 | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 157 | 179 | 182 | 59 | 56 | 53 | 50 | 48 | 45 |
| growth % | 34.9 | 14.1 | 1.4 | (67.7) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) |
| EBITDA | 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| margin % | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.5 |
| less depreciation | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| EBIT | 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| less tax on EBIT | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | |||
| NOPAT | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| add depreciation | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| less capex | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| less working-capital build | — | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | — | (3) | (3) | — | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 161, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Interest at 3.1% on debt | (5) | (5) | (5) | (5) | (5) | |
| Profit before tax | (3) | (3) | (3) | (3) | (3) | |
| Profit after tax | 0 | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) |
| Dividends | (0) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| Working capital | 51 | 48 | 46 | 43 | 41 | 39 |
| Net block and other assets | 354 | 354 | 354 | 354 | 354 | 354 |
| Debt | 161 | 161 | 161 | 161 | 161 | 161 |
| Equity | 43 | 41 | 39 | 37 | 35 | 33 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) | |
| Investing (capex) | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY23 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | -5% | 4.5% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹(34) | (391.7)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.