Models
ALLCARGO LOGISTICS LTDALLCARGOTransport Services
₹8per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹8implied FY26 P/E 115.6× · EV/EBITDA 5.3×
Against CMP ₹10.98−26.3%close of 2026-09-20
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3145%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹7₹10
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹7₹37
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 678 |
| PV of terminal value | 564 |
| Enterprise value | 1,242 |
| less net debt | (29) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 1,213 |
| ÷ 150.00 crore shares | ₹8 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 8 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 10 |
| 10.50% | 8 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 10 |
| 11.00% | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 9 |
| 11.50% | 7 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 8 |
| 12.00% | 7 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 8 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹10.98; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 3 · 8 · 14 |
| Draws below the CMP | 74% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.99 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.12 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.01 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 18,051 | 13,188 | 16,022 | 2,058 | 1,955 | 1,857 | 1,764 | 1,676 | 1,592 |
| growth % | (10.1) | (26.9) | 21.5 | (87.2) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) |
| EBITDA | 1,167 | 623 | 524 | 236 | 225 | 214 | 203 | 193 | 183 |
| margin % | 6.5 | 4.7 | 3.3 | 11.5 | 11.5 | 11.5 | 11.5 | 11.5 | 11.5 |
| less depreciation | (278) | (400) | (429) | (204) | (194) | (184) | (175) | (166) | (158) |
| EBIT | 889 | 223 | 96 | 32 | 31 | 30 | 28 | 27 | 25 |
| less tax on EBIT | 64 | 63 | 59 | 56 | 54 | 51 | |||
| NOPAT | 96 | 94 | 89 | 85 | 80 | 76 | |||
| add depreciation | 278 | 400 | 429 | 204 | 194 | 184 | 175 | 166 | 158 |
| less capex | (71) | (121) | (78) | (19) | (18) | (68) | (113) | (153) | (189) |
| less working-capital build | — | 12 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 9 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 1,512 | (267) | 183 | — | 281 | 216 | 157 | 103 | 54 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 267 | 185 | 121 | 72 | 34 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 102, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 32 | 31 | 30 | 28 | 27 | 25 |
| Interest at 9.8% on debt | (10) | (10) | (10) | (10) | (10) | |
| Profit before tax | 21 | 20 | 18 | 17 | 15 | |
| Profit after tax | 0 | 64 | 59 | 55 | 50 | 46 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 73 | 324 | 511 | 638 | 711 | 735 |
| Working capital | 231 | 220 | 209 | 198 | 188 | 179 |
| Net block and other assets | 1,432 | 1,256 | 1,140 | 1,078 | 1,065 | 1,096 |
| Debt | 102 | 102 | 102 | 102 | 102 | 102 |
| Equity | 574 | 638 | 697 | 752 | 802 | 849 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | (0) | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 269 | 254 | 240 | 226 | 213 | |
| Investing (capex) | (18) | (68) | (113) | (153) | (189) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 251 | 186 | 127 | 73 | 24 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 251 | 186 | 127 | 73 | 24 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | -5% | 11.5% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹8 | (26.3)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.