Models
AMBICA AGAR & AROMAINDLTDAMBICAAGARHousehold Products
₹-20per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹(20)implied FY26 P/E (9.9)× · EV/EBITDA 5.3×
Against CMP ₹23.40−184.1%close of 8 Oct 2026
Growth the CMP implies—%no growth rate between −20% and 45% a year brings the value to the CMP on your other inputs
Value after FY3169%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹(26)₹(7)
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹20₹30
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 17 |
| PV of terminal value | 37 |
| Enterprise value | 54 |
| less net debt | (88) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | (34) |
| ÷ 1.72 crore shares | ₹(20) |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | (19) | (17) | (14) | (11) | (7) |
| 10.50% | (21) | (19) | (17) | (15) | (11) |
| 11.00% | (23) | (21) | (20) | (18) | (15) |
| 11.50% | (25) | (23) | (22) | (20) | (18) |
| 12.00% | (26) | (25) | (24) | (22) | (21) |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹23.40; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | (33) · (20) · (8) |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.84 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.45 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.26 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 117 | 98 | 124 | 141 | 161 | 183 | 209 | 238 | 272 |
| growth % | 0.8 | (16.5) | 26.3 | 14.1 | 14.0 | 14.0 | 14.0 | 14.0 | 14.0 |
| EBITDA | 7 | 4 | 10 | 10 | 12 | 13 | 15 | 17 | 20 |
| margin % | 6.3 | 3.9 | 8.3 | 7.2 | 7.2 | 7.2 | 7.2 | 7.2 | 7.2 |
| less depreciation | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (3) | (3) | (4) | (4) | (5) |
| EBIT | 6 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 13 | 15 |
| less tax on EBIT | (2) | (3) | (3) | (4) | (4) | (5) | |||
| NOPAT | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | |||
| add depreciation | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 5 |
| less capex | 0 | (3) | (9) | (1) | (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (6) |
| less working-capital build | — | (3) | (4) | (4) | (5) | (6) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 8 | 1 | (7) | — | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 88, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 13 | 15 |
| Interest at 13.8% on debt | (12) | (12) | (12) | (12) | (12) | |
| Profit before tax | (3) | (2) | (1) | 1 | 3 | |
| Profit after tax | 3 | (2) | (1) | (0) | 1 | 2 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 0 | (3) | (7) | (11) | (16) | (20) |
| Working capital | 24 | 27 | 31 | 36 | 41 | 46 |
| Net block and other assets | 220 | 219 | 217 | 216 | 216 | 217 |
| Debt | 88 | 88 | 88 | 88 | 88 | 88 |
| Equity | 113 | 110 | 109 | 108 | 109 | 111 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | (3) | (2) | (1) | (0) | 1 | |
| Investing (capex) | (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (6) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | (4) | (4) | (4) | (4) | (5) | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (4) | (4) | (4) | (4) | (5) | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 14% | 7.2% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹(20) | (184.1)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.