Models
ANSAL PROP & INFRA LTDANSALAPI
₹66per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹66implied FY24 P/E —× · EV/EBITDA (212.2)×
Against CMP ₹3.66+1701.2%close of 2026-09-20
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY2967%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹47₹103
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹3₹5
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY25–FY29 free cash flow | 490 |
| PV of terminal value | 984 |
| Enterprise value | 1,475 |
| less net debt | (437) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 1,038 |
| ÷ 15.74 crore shares | ₹66 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 69 | 75 | 82 | 92 | 103 |
| 10.50% | 62 | 67 | 73 | 81 | 90 |
| 11.00% | 56 | 61 | 66 | 72 | 79 |
| 11.50% | 52 | 55 | 60 | 65 | 70 |
| 12.00% | 47 | 50 | 54 | 58 | 63 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹3.66; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 57 · 66 · 78 |
| Draws below the CMP | 0% |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −1.00 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.01 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.01 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY21 | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 846 | 765 | 770 | 598 | 568 | 539 | 512 | 487 | 462 |
| growth % | (24.3) | (9.5) | 0.7 | (22.4) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) |
| EBITDA | 2 | (27) | (479) | (7) | (7) | (6) | (6) | (6) | (6) |
| margin % | 0.2 | (3.5) | (62.2) | (1.2) | (1.2) | (1.2) | (1.2) | (1.2) | (1.2) |
| less depreciation | (23) | (25) | (29) | (33) | (31) | (30) | (28) | (27) | (25) |
| EBIT | (22) | (51) | (508) | (40) | (38) | (36) | (34) | (33) | (31) |
| less tax on EBIT | 10 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 8 | |||
| NOPAT | (30) | (28) | (27) | (26) | (24) | (23) | |||
| add depreciation | 23 | 25 | 29 | 33 | 31 | 30 | 28 | 27 | 25 |
| less capex | 0 | (138) | (1) | (0) | (1) | (9) | (17) | (24) | (31) |
| less working-capital build | — | 151 | 144 | 136 | 130 | 123 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 222 | 117 | 358 | — | 153 | 137 | 122 | 108 | 95 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 145 | 117 | 94 | 75 | 59 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 476, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | (40) | (38) | (36) | (34) | (33) | (31) |
| Interest at 3.8% on debt | (18) | (18) | (18) | (18) | (18) | |
| Profit before tax | (56) | (54) | (52) | (51) | (49) | |
| Profit after tax | (44) | (42) | (41) | (39) | (38) | (37) |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 38 | 178 | 301 | 409 | 504 | 585 |
| Working capital | 3,022 | 2,871 | 2,727 | 2,591 | 2,461 | 2,338 |
| Net block and other assets | 2,854 | 2,824 | 2,803 | 2,792 | 2,790 | 2,795 |
| Debt | 476 | 476 | 476 | 476 | 476 | 476 |
| Equity | (615) | (657) | (697) | (736) | (774) | (811) |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 140 | 133 | 125 | 118 | 112 | |
| Investing (capex) | (1) | (9) | (17) | (24) | (31) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 140 | 123 | 108 | 94 | 81 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 140 | 123 | 108 | 94 | 81 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY24 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | -5% | -1.2% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹66 | 1701.2% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.