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Model Note · ASHOK LEYLAND LTD · 11 September 2026Page 1 of 2
Model Note
Prepared by the reader · not a MarketPing document
ASHOK LEYLAND LTD Discounted cash flow · base FY26
ASHOK LEYLAND LTD
Value per share, this model₹198
CMP 2026-09-10₹163.75
Difference21.2%
Growth the CMP implies12.9%/yr
This note states the assumptions and the arithmetic of one model of ASHOK LEYLAND LTD, built on its filed FY26 consolidated statements. The value is the outcome of the assumptions below and nothing else; it is not a fair value, a target or a recommendation.
Assumptions
Input
This model
Filed reference
Revenue growth, 5 years
16% a year
FY26 16.1% · 5-yr CAGR 23.7%
EBITDA margin
18.4%
FY26 18.4% · 5-yr average 15.2%
Depreciation · capex, % of revenue
2% · 5.2%, fading to 1.2× depreciation
FY26 2.0% · 5.2%
Working capital, % of added revenue · tax
0% · 28.1%
-10 working-capital days · effective 28.1%
Discount rate
11.00%
1-yr beta 1.87
After FY31
5% flat · mid-year discounting
—
Net debt · non-controlling interest · non-operating investments
₹57,655 · ₹0 · ₹0 cr
FY26 net debt ₹57,655 cr
Shares
587.39 crore
587.39 crore today
Source: SEBI results XBRL as filed with BSE/NSE, exchange prices; the reader's assumptions.
Projected cash flow to the firm
₹ crore
FY26
FY27
FY28
FY29
FY30
FY31
Revenue
56,362
65,380
75,841
87,975
1,02,051
1,18,380
growth %
16.1
16.0
16.0
16.0
16.0
16.0
EBITDA
10,361
12,030
13,955
16,187
18,777
21,782
Depreciation
(1,138)
(1,308)
(1,517)
(1,760)
(2,041)
(2,368)
NOPAT
6,631
7,709
8,943
10,374
12,033
13,959
less capex
(2,945)
(3,400)
(3,413)
(3,343)
(3,164)
(2,841)
less working-capital build
—
0
0
0
0
0
Free cash flow to firm
—
5,617
7,047
8,790
10,911
13,485
Present value
5,332
6,026
6,772
7,572
8,432
Source: the model; base year as filed.
Every figure is the reader's model over filed numbers · No rating, target or fair value is expressedmarketping.in
Model Note · ASHOK LEYLAND LTD · 11 September 2026Page 2 of 2
From enterprise to equity
PV of the 5 explicit years
34,133
PV of the terminal value (80% of EV)
1,40,051
Enterprise value
1,74,183
less net debt
(57,655)
less non-controlling interest
0
add non-operating investments
0
Equity value
1,16,528
÷ 587.39 crore shares
₹198
Source: the model.
Sensitivity, ₹ per share
WACC ↓ · terminal growth →
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
5.5%
6.0%
10.0%
209
232
261
296
339
10.5%
184
203
227
255
289
11.0%
162
179
198
221
249
11.5%
144
158
174
193
216
12.0%
128
140
154
170
189
Source: the model; n/a where terminal growth reaches the discount rate.
Statement
This note is the reader's own model over publicly filed information: SEBI results XBRL filed with BSE and NSE and exchange price data, assembled by MarketPing software; every assumption above is the reader's. It contains no research recommendation, no price target and no opinion by MarketPing on the merits of any security, and is not a research report within the meaning of the SEBI (Research Analysts) Regulations, 2014, Regulation 2(1)(w)(vii). Historical per-share figures are on the current share count. Where a figure is unavailable the table shows a dash rather than an estimate. Nothing here constitutes investment advice, an offer or a solicitation.
Every figure is the reader's model over filed numbers · No rating, target or fair value is expressedmarketping.in
