Models
ASHOKA BUILDCON LTDASHOKAConstruction
₹1,277per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹1,277implied FY26 P/E 13.7× · EV/EBITDA 9.1×
Against CMP ₹113.09+1029.5%close of 2026-09-20
Growth the CMP implies(20.0)%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3170%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹1,004₹1,822
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹101₹215
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 10,991 |
| PV of terminal value | 25,786 |
| Enterprise value | 36,777 |
| less net debt | (920) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 35,857 |
| ÷ 28.07 crore shares | ₹1,277 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 1,319 | 1,410 | 1,520 | 1,654 | 1,822 |
| 10.50% | 1,222 | 1,298 | 1,388 | 1,495 | 1,627 |
| 11.00% | 1,139 | 1,203 | 1,277 | 1,366 | 1,472 |
| 11.50% | 1,067 | 1,121 | 1,184 | 1,257 | 1,344 |
| 12.00% | 1,004 | 1,050 | 1,104 | 1,166 | 1,238 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹113.09; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 1,094 · 1,278 · 1,501 |
| Draws below the CMP | 0% |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.74 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.65 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.03 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 8,100 | 9,798 | 10,037 | 7,520 | 7,144 | 6,787 | 6,447 | 6,125 | 5,819 |
| growth % | 36.2 | 21.0 | 2.4 | (25.1) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) |
| EBITDA | 1,897 | 2,358 | 2,920 | 4,026 | 3,822 | 3,631 | 3,449 | 3,277 | 3,113 |
| margin % | 23.4 | 24.1 | 29.1 | 53.5 | 53.5 | 53.5 | 53.5 | 53.5 | 53.5 |
| less depreciation | (341) | (367) | (290) | (161) | (150) | (143) | (135) | (129) | (122) |
| EBIT | 1,556 | 1,992 | 2,630 | 3,865 | 3,672 | 3,488 | 3,314 | 3,148 | 2,991 |
| less tax on EBIT | (684) | (650) | (617) | (587) | (557) | (529) | |||
| NOPAT | 3,181 | 3,022 | 2,871 | 2,727 | 2,591 | 2,461 | |||
| add depreciation | 341 | 367 | 290 | 161 | 150 | 143 | 135 | 129 | 122 |
| less capex | (179) | (146) | (156) | (117) | (114) | (124) | (133) | (140) | (147) |
| less working-capital build | — | 56 | 54 | 51 | 48 | 46 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 313 | 621 | 1,536 | — | 3,114 | 2,943 | 2,781 | 2,628 | 2,483 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 2,956 | 2,516 | 2,142 | 1,824 | 1,552 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 1,511, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 3,865 | 3,672 | 3,488 | 3,314 | 3,148 | 2,991 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | (121) | (121) | (121) | (121) | (121) | |
| Profit before tax | 3,551 | 3,368 | 3,193 | 3,027 | 2,870 | |
| Profit after tax | 2,550 | 2,923 | 2,771 | 2,628 | 2,492 | 2,362 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 591 | 3,606 | 6,449 | 9,130 | 11,659 | 14,042 |
| Working capital | 1,125 | 1,068 | 1,015 | 964 | 916 | 870 |
| Net block and other assets | 11,334 | 11,299 | 11,280 | 11,278 | 11,289 | 11,314 |
| Debt | 1,511 | 1,511 | 1,511 | 1,511 | 1,511 | 1,511 |
| Equity | 6,576 | 9,499 | 12,270 | 14,898 | 17,390 | 19,752 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 3,129 | 2,968 | 2,814 | 2,669 | 2,530 | |
| Investing (capex) | (114) | (124) | (133) | (140) | (147) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 3,015 | 2,843 | 2,681 | 2,528 | 2,383 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 3,015 | 2,843 | 2,681 | 2,528 | 2,383 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | -5% | 53.5% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹1,277 | 1029.5% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.