Models
ASIAN HOTELS (EAST) LTDAHLEASTLeisure Services
₹-43per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹(43)implied FY25 P/E —× · EV/EBITDA 8.6×
Against CMP ₹132.50−132.5%close of 8 Oct 2026
Growth the CMP implies23.1%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3079%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹(77)₹25
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹127₹175
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY26–FY30 free cash flow | 54 |
| PV of terminal value | 199 |
| Enterprise value | 254 |
| less net debt | (328) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | (74) |
| ÷ 1.73 crore shares | ₹(43) |
79% of the value sits after FY30. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | (38) | (27) | (13) | 4 | 25 |
| 10.50% | (50) | (41) | (29) | (16) | 1 |
| 11.00% | (60) | (52) | (43) | (32) | (19) |
| 11.50% | (69) | (63) | (55) | (45) | (35) |
| 12.00% | (77) | (71) | (65) | (57) | (48) |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹132.50; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | (68) · (44) · (14) |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.67 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.67 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.22 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 92 | 95 | 108 | 113 | 118 | 122 | 127 | 132 | 138 |
| growth % | 68.7 | 4.1 | 13.7 | 4.2 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 |
| EBITDA | (7) | 32 | 38 | 29 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 35 | 36 |
| margin % | (7.9) | 33.9 | 35.4 | 26.1 | 26.1 | 26.1 | 26.1 | 26.1 | 26.1 |
| less depreciation | (19) | (4) | (4) | (4) | (4) | (4) | (4) | (4) | (5) |
| EBIT | (27) | 29 | 35 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 |
| less tax on EBIT | (9) | (9) | (10) | (10) | (11) | (11) | |||
| NOPAT | 17 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 19 | 20 | |||
| add depreciation | 19 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 |
| less capex | (14) | (5) | (2) | (11) | (11) | (10) | (9) | (7) | (6) |
| less working-capital build | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (12) | 3 | (387) | — | 10 | 12 | 14 | 17 | 19 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 12 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 330, dividends at 24.7% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 |
| Interest at 11.9% on debt | (39) | (39) | (39) | (39) | (39) | |
| Profit before tax | (13) | (11) | (10) | (9) | (8) | |
| Profit after tax | 18 | (8) | (7) | (7) | (6) | (5) |
| Dividends | (4) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 2 | (13) | (27) | (38) | (46) | (52) |
| Working capital | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) |
| Net block and other assets | 669 | 676 | 682 | 686 | 689 | 690 |
| Debt | 330 | 330 | 330 | 330 | 330 | 330 |
| Equity | 244 | 235 | 228 | 221 | 215 | 210 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | (4) | (3) | (2) | (1) | (0) | |
| Investing (capex) | (11) | (10) | (9) | (7) | (6) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | (15) | (13) | (11) | (9) | (6) | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (15) | (13) | (11) | (9) | (6) | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY25 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 4% | 26.1% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹(43) | (132.5)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.