Models
ASIAN HOTELS (WEST) LTDAHLWEST
₹997per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹997implied FY26 P/E 16.3× · EV/EBITDA 9.7×
Against CMP ₹545.00+82.9%close of 2026-09-20
Growth the CMP implies(2.7)%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3175%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹677₹1,634
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹137₹751
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 408 |
| PV of terminal value | 1,254 |
| Enterprise value | 1,662 |
| less net debt | (501) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 1,161 |
| ÷ 1.17 crore shares | ₹997 |
75% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 1,044 | 1,151 | 1,280 | 1,437 | 1,634 |
| 10.50% | 931 | 1,020 | 1,125 | 1,252 | 1,406 |
| 11.00% | 834 | 909 | 997 | 1,100 | 1,224 |
| 11.50% | 750 | 814 | 888 | 974 | 1,076 |
| 12.00% | 677 | 732 | 795 | 867 | 952 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹545.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 729 · 986 · 1,295 |
| Draws below the CMP | 0% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.71 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.59 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.29 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 347 | 400 | 411 | 435 | 462 | 489 | 519 | 550 | 583 |
| growth % | 118.8 | 15.1 | 2.7 | 6.1 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 |
| EBITDA | 145 | 170 | 143 | 171 | 181 | 192 | 204 | 216 | 229 |
| margin % | 41.8 | 42.6 | 35.0 | 39.3 | 39.3 | 39.3 | 39.3 | 39.3 | 39.3 |
| less depreciation | (38) | (38) | (41) | (43) | (45) | (48) | (51) | (54) | (57) |
| EBIT | 107 | 132 | 103 | 129 | 136 | 144 | 153 | 162 | 172 |
| less tax on EBIT | (30) | (31) | (33) | (35) | (37) | (40) | |||
| NOPAT | 99 | 105 | 111 | 118 | 125 | 132 | |||
| add depreciation | 38 | 38 | 41 | 43 | 45 | 48 | 51 | 54 | 57 |
| less capex | (5) | (7) | 0 | (54) | (57) | (60) | (63) | (66) | (69) |
| less working-capital build | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 150 | 145 | 138 | — | 93 | 99 | 106 | 113 | 121 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 88 | 85 | 82 | 78 | 76 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 604, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 129 | 136 | 144 | 153 | 162 | 172 |
| Interest at 8.3% on debt | (50) | (50) | (50) | (50) | (50) | |
| Profit before tax | 86 | 94 | 103 | 112 | 122 | |
| Profit after tax | 65 | 66 | 72 | 79 | 86 | 94 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 103 | 157 | 217 | 285 | 359 | 441 |
| Working capital | (7) | (7) | (7) | (7) | (7) | (7) |
| Net block and other assets | 881 | 893 | 905 | 917 | 929 | 940 |
| Debt | 604 | 604 | 604 | 604 | 604 | 604 |
| Equity | (13) | 53 | 125 | 204 | 290 | 384 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 111 | 120 | 130 | 140 | 151 | |
| Investing (capex) | (57) | (60) | (63) | (66) | (69) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 54 | 61 | 67 | 75 | 82 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 54 | 61 | 67 | 75 | 82 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 6% | 39.3% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹997 | 82.9% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.