Models
ASIAN STAR CO. LTD.ASTARConsumer Durables
₹442per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹442implied FY26 P/E 18.1× · EV/EBITDA 17.0×
Against CMP ₹642.00−31.2%close of 8 Oct 2026
Growth the CMP implies—%no growth rate between −20% and 45% a year brings the value to the CMP on your other inputs
Value after FY3171%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹299₹726
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹485₹848
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 314 |
| PV of terminal value | 769 |
| Enterprise value | 1,083 |
| less net debt | (376) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 707 |
| ÷ 1.60 crore shares | ₹442 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 463 | 511 | 568 | 639 | 726 |
| 10.50% | 413 | 452 | 499 | 556 | 625 |
| 11.00% | 369 | 403 | 442 | 488 | 543 |
| 11.50% | 332 | 360 | 393 | 431 | 477 |
| 12.00% | 299 | 323 | 351 | 384 | 421 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹642.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 363 · 442 · 544 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.89 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.44 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.03 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY22 | FY23 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 4,423 | 4,478 | 2,956 | 2,882 | 2,810 | 2,740 | 2,671 | 2,604 | 2,539 |
| growth % | 73.8 | 1.3 | (34.0) | (2.5) | (2.5) | (2.5) | (2.5) | (2.5) | (2.5) |
| EBITDA | 125 | 147 | 78 | 64 | 62 | 60 | 59 | 57 | 56 |
| margin % | 2.8 | 3.3 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 |
| less depreciation | (14) | (12) | (11) | (10) | (8) | (8) | (8) | (8) | (8) |
| EBIT | 111 | 135 | 67 | 54 | 53 | 52 | 51 | 49 | 48 |
| less tax on EBIT | (10) | (10) | (10) | (10) | (9) | (9) | |||
| NOPAT | 44 | 43 | 42 | 41 | 40 | 39 | |||
| add depreciation | 14 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 |
| less capex | (5) | (5) | (7) | (7) | (6) | (7) | (7) | (8) | (9) |
| less working-capital build | — | 40 | 39 | 38 | 37 | 36 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (181) | 89 | 224 | — | 86 | 83 | 80 | 77 | 74 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 82 | 71 | 62 | 53 | 46 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 493, dividends at 5.9% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 54 | 53 | 52 | 51 | 49 | 48 |
| Interest at 5% on debt | (25) | (25) | (25) | (25) | (25) | |
| Profit before tax | 29 | 27 | 26 | 25 | 24 | |
| Profit after tax | 40 | 23 | 22 | 21 | 20 | 19 |
| Dividends | (2) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 117 | 182 | 244 | 303 | 359 | 412 |
| Working capital | 1,614 | 1,574 | 1,534 | 1,496 | 1,458 | 1,422 |
| Net block and other assets | 742 | 739 | 737 | 737 | 737 | 739 |
| Debt | 493 | 493 | 493 | 493 | 493 | 493 |
| Equity | 1,658 | 1,680 | 1,700 | 1,720 | 1,739 | 1,757 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 72 | 70 | 68 | 65 | 63 | |
| Investing (capex) | (6) | (7) | (7) | (8) | (9) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | |
| Net change in cash | 65 | 62 | 59 | 56 | 53 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 66 | 63 | 60 | 57 | 54 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | -2.5% | 2.2% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹442 | (31.2)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.