Models
AUTOLINE INDUSTRIES LTDAUTOIND
₹146per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹146implied FY26 P/E 16.6× · EV/EBITDA 9.7×
Against CMP ₹85.35+70.8%close of 2026-09-21
Growth the CMP implies(7.1)%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3195%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹86₹266
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹48₹104
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 52 |
| PV of terminal value | 926 |
| Enterprise value | 978 |
| less net debt | (316) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 662 |
| ÷ 4.54 crore shares | ₹146 |
95% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 154 | 174 | 199 | 228 | 266 |
| 10.50% | 133 | 150 | 170 | 194 | 223 |
| 11.00% | 115 | 129 | 146 | 165 | 189 |
| 11.50% | 100 | 112 | 126 | 142 | 161 |
| 12.00% | 86 | 96 | 108 | 122 | 138 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹85.35; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 60 · 141 · 227 |
| Draws below the CMP | 19% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.91 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.35 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.08 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 650 | 654 | 659 | 824 | 1,030 | 1,288 | 1,609 | 2,012 | 2,515 |
| growth % | 14.3 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 25.1 | 25.0 | 25.0 | 25.0 | 25.0 | 25.0 |
| EBITDA | 48 | 51 | 65 | 101 | 126 | 157 | 196 | 245 | 307 |
| margin % | 7.3 | 7.7 | 9.9 | 12.2 | 12.2 | 12.2 | 12.2 | 12.2 | 12.2 |
| less depreciation | (18) | (14) | (18) | (22) | (27) | (33) | (42) | (52) | (65) |
| EBIT | 30 | 37 | 47 | 79 | 99 | 124 | 155 | 193 | 241 |
| less tax on EBIT | (11) | (14) | (17) | (21) | (27) | (34) | |||
| NOPAT | 68 | 85 | 106 | 133 | 166 | 208 | |||
| add depreciation | 18 | 14 | 18 | 22 | 27 | 33 | 42 | 52 | 65 |
| less capex | (12) | 0 | 0 | (77) | (96) | (100) | (100) | (94) | (78) |
| less working-capital build | — | (43) | (54) | (68) | (84) | (106) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 65 | 19 | 66 | — | (27) | (14) | 7 | 40 | 89 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | (26) | (12) | 6 | 28 | 56 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 316, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 79 | 99 | 124 | 155 | 193 | 241 |
| Interest at 13.3% on debt | (42) | (42) | (42) | (42) | (42) | |
| Profit before tax | 57 | 82 | 112 | 151 | 199 | |
| Profit after tax | 39 | 49 | 70 | 97 | 130 | 172 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 0 | (63) | (113) | (142) | (138) | (85) |
| Working capital | 173 | 216 | 271 | 338 | 423 | 528 |
| Net block and other assets | 575 | 644 | 711 | 769 | 810 | 823 |
| Debt | 316 | 316 | 316 | 316 | 316 | 316 |
| Equity | 197 | 246 | 316 | 413 | 543 | 715 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | 0 | (0) | 0 | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 32 | 50 | 71 | 98 | 131 | |
| Investing (capex) | (96) | (100) | (100) | (94) | (78) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | (63) | (50) | (29) | 4 | 53 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (63) | (50) | (29) | 4 | 53 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 25% | 12.2% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹146 | 70.8% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.