Models
AVADH SUG & ENERGY LTDAVADHSUGAR
₹-248per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹(248)implied FY26 P/E (7.5)× · EV/EBITDA 4.1×
Against CMP ₹943.00−126.3%close of 9 Oct 2026
Growth the CMP implies—%no growth rate between −20% and 45% a year brings the value to the CMP on your other inputs
Value after FY3180%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹(355)₹(34)
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹306₹979
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 185 |
| PV of terminal value | 723 |
| Enterprise value | 908 |
| less net debt | (1,404) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | (496) |
| ÷ 2.00 crore shares | ₹(248) |
80% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | (232) | (196) | (153) | (100) | (34) |
| 10.50% | (270) | (240) | (205) | (162) | (110) |
| 11.00% | (302) | (277) | (248) | (213) | (171) |
| 11.50% | (330) | (309) | (284) | (255) | (221) |
| 12.00% | (355) | (336) | (315) | (291) | (262) |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹943.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | (376) · (251) · (116) |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.84 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.41 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.30 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2,798 | 2,694 | 2,636 | 2,694 | 2,747 | 2,802 | 2,858 | 2,916 | 2,974 |
| growth % | 2.0 | (3.7) | (2.2) | 2.2 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| EBITDA | 255 | 330 | 276 | 219 | 223 | 227 | 232 | 236 | 241 |
| margin % | 9.1 | 12.3 | 10.5 | 8.1 | 8.1 | 8.1 | 8.1 | 8.1 | 8.1 |
| less depreciation | (51) | (55) | (58) | (62) | (63) | (64) | (66) | (67) | (68) |
| EBIT | 204 | 275 | 218 | 157 | 159 | 163 | 166 | 169 | 172 |
| less tax on EBIT | (55) | (56) | (57) | (58) | (60) | (61) | |||
| NOPAT | 102 | 103 | 105 | 107 | 110 | 112 | |||
| add depreciation | 51 | 55 | 58 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 66 | 67 | 68 |
| less capex | (133) | (79) | (107) | (109) | (110) | (103) | (97) | (90) | (82) |
| less working-capital build | — | (26) | (27) | (27) | (28) | (28) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 230 | (156) | 47 | — | 30 | 40 | 49 | 59 | 70 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 29 | 34 | 38 | 41 | 44 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 1,406, dividends at 34.9% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 157 | 159 | 163 | 166 | 169 | 172 |
| Interest at 5.3% on debt | (75) | (75) | (75) | (75) | (75) | |
| Profit before tax | 85 | 88 | 91 | 95 | 98 | |
| Profit after tax | 57 | 55 | 57 | 59 | 61 | 63 |
| Dividends | (20) | (19) | (20) | (21) | (21) | (22) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 2 | (35) | (64) | (84) | (94) | (95) |
| Working capital | 1,314 | 1,341 | 1,367 | 1,395 | 1,423 | 1,451 |
| Net block and other assets | 1,564 | 1,611 | 1,650 | 1,681 | 1,703 | 1,717 |
| Debt | 1,406 | 1,406 | 1,406 | 1,406 | 1,406 | 1,406 |
| Equity | 1,124 | 1,160 | 1,197 | 1,236 | 1,276 | 1,317 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 92 | 95 | 98 | 100 | 103 | |
| Investing (capex) | (110) | (103) | (97) | (90) | (82) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (19) | (20) | (21) | (21) | (22) | |
| Net change in cash | (37) | (29) | (20) | (10) | (1) | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (18) | (9) | 1 | 11 | 21 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 2% | 8.1% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹(248) | (126.3)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.