Models
AVG LOGISTICS LIMITEDAVGTransport Services
₹32per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹32implied FY25 P/E 2.3× · EV/EBITDA 1.7×
Against CMP ₹162.99−80.1%close of 8 Oct 2026
Growth the CMP implies—%no growth rate between −20% and 45% a year brings the value to the CMP on your other inputs
Value after FY3059%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹17₹64
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹117₹264
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY26–FY30 free cash flow | 68 |
| PV of terminal value | 99 |
| Enterprise value | 167 |
| less net debt | (106) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 61 |
| ÷ 1.87 crore shares | ₹32 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 35 | 40 | 47 | 54 | 64 |
| 10.50% | 29 | 34 | 39 | 45 | 53 |
| 11.00% | 24 | 28 | 32 | 37 | 44 |
| 11.50% | 20 | 23 | 27 | 31 | 36 |
| 12.00% | 17 | 19 | 22 | 26 | 30 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹162.99; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | (101) · 32 · 142 |
| Draws below the CMP | 94% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.83 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.53 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.06 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 427 | 480 | 552 | 634 | 729 | 839 | 965 | 1,109 |
| growth % | — | 12.4 | 14.9 | 15.0 | 15.0 | 15.0 | 15.0 | 15.0 |
| EBITDA | 75 | 98 | 96 | 110 | 126 | 145 | 167 | 192 |
| margin % | 17.5 | 20.4 | 17.3 | 17.3 | 17.3 | 17.3 | 17.3 | 17.3 |
| less depreciation | (36) | (38) | (43) | (50) | (58) | (66) | (76) | (88) |
| EBIT | 39 | 59 | 52 | 60 | 69 | 79 | 91 | 104 |
| less tax on EBIT | (14) | (16) | (18) | (21) | (24) | (28) | ||
| NOPAT | 38 | 44 | 50 | 58 | 66 | 76 | ||
| add depreciation | 36 | 38 | 43 | 50 | 58 | 66 | 76 | 88 |
| less capex | 0 | (51) | (38) | (44) | (55) | (69) | (85) | (105) |
| less working-capital build | — | (28) | (32) | (37) | (43) | (49) | ||
| Free cash flow to firm | 39 | (50) | — | 22 | 20 | 18 | 14 | 10 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | |||
| Present value | 21 | 17 | 14 | 10 | 6 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 107, dividends at 3.7% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 52 | 60 | 69 | 79 | 91 | 104 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | (9) | (9) | (9) | (9) | (9) | |
| Profit before tax | 51 | 60 | 70 | 82 | 96 | |
| Profit after tax | 21 | 37 | 44 | 51 | 60 | 70 |
| Dividends | (1) | (1) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (3) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 1 | 15 | 28 | 38 | 44 | 44 |
| Working capital | 188 | 216 | 248 | 285 | 328 | 377 |
| Net block and other assets | 310 | 304 | 301 | 304 | 313 | 330 |
| Debt | 107 | 107 | 107 | 107 | 107 | 107 |
| Equity | 247 | 283 | 325 | 374 | 432 | 499 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 59 | 69 | 80 | 93 | 108 | |
| Investing (capex) | (44) | (55) | (69) | (85) | (105) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (1) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (3) | |
| Net change in cash | 14 | 12 | 10 | 6 | 1 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 16 | 14 | 12 | 8 | 3 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY25 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 15% | 17.3% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹32 | (80.1)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.