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Model Note · AVG LOGISTICS LIMITED · 9 October 2026Page 1 of 2
Model Note
Prepared by the reader · not a MarketPing document
AVG LOGISTICS LIMITED Discounted cash flow · base FY25
AVG LOGISTICS LIMITED
Value per share, this model₹32
CMP, 8 Oct 2026₹162.99
Difference(80.1)%
Growth the CMP implies—
This note states the assumptions and the arithmetic of one model of AVG LOGISTICS LIMITED, built on its filed FY25 consolidated statements. The value is the outcome of the assumptions below and nothing else; it is not a fair value, a target or a recommendation.
Assumptions
Input
This model
Filed reference
Revenue growth, 5 years
15% a year
FY25 14.9% · 5-yr CAGR —%
EBITDA margin
17.3%
FY25 17.3% · 5-yr average 18.4%
Depreciation · capex, % of revenue
7.9% · 6.9%, fading to 1.2× depreciation
FY25 7.9% · 6.9%
Working capital, % of added revenue · tax
34% · 26.9%
124 working-capital days · effective 26.9%
Discount rate
11.00%
1-yr beta 0.93
After FY30
5% flat · mid-year discounting
—
Net debt · non-controlling interest · non-operating investments
₹106 · ₹0 · ₹0 cr
FY25 net debt ₹106 cr
Shares
1.87 crore
1.87 crore today
Source: SEBI results XBRL as filed with BSE/NSE, exchange prices; the reader's assumptions.
Projected cash flow to the firm
₹ crore
FY25
FY26
FY27
FY28
FY29
FY30
Revenue
552
634
729
839
965
1,109
growth %
14.9
15.0
15.0
15.0
15.0
15.0
EBITDA
96
110
126
145
167
192
Depreciation
(43)
(50)
(58)
(66)
(76)
(88)
NOPAT
38
44
50
58
66
76
less capex
(38)
(44)
(55)
(69)
(85)
(105)
less working-capital build
—
(28)
(32)
(37)
(43)
(49)
Free cash flow to firm
—
22
20
18
14
10
Present value
21
17
14
10
6
Source: the model; base year as filed.
Every figure is the reader's model over filed numbers · No rating, target or fair value is expressedmarketping.in
Model Note · AVG LOGISTICS LIMITED · 9 October 2026Page 2 of 2
From enterprise to equity
PV of the 5 explicit years
68
PV of the terminal value (59% of EV)
99
Enterprise value
167
less net debt
(106)
less non-controlling interest
0
add non-operating investments
0
Equity value
61
÷ 1.87 crore shares
₹32
Source: the model.
Sensitivity, ₹ per share
WACC ↓ · terminal growth →
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
5.5%
6.0%
10.0%
35
40
47
54
64
10.5%
29
34
39
45
53
11.0%
24
28
32
37
44
11.5%
20
23
27
31
36
12.0%
17
19
22
26
30
Source: the model; n/a where terminal growth reaches the discount rate.
Statement
This note is the reader's own model over publicly filed information: SEBI results XBRL filed with BSE and NSE and exchange price data, assembled by MarketPing software; every assumption above is the reader's. It contains no research recommendation, no price target and no opinion by MarketPing on the merits of any security, and is not a research report within the meaning of the SEBI (Research Analysts) Regulations, 2014, Regulation 2(1)(w)(vii). Historical per-share figures are on the current share count. Where a figure is unavailable the table shows a dash rather than an estimate. Nothing here constitutes investment advice, an offer or a solicitation.
Every figure is the reader's model over filed numbers · No rating, target or fair value is expressedmarketping.in
