Models
BAJAJ HINDUSTHAN SUGAR LTBAJAJHINDAgricultural Food & other Products
₹-8per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹(8)implied FY26 P/E (6.2)× · EV/EBITDA 4.1×
Against CMP ₹20.93−140.3%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3157%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹(9)₹(6)
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹15₹26
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 629 |
| PV of terminal value | 828 |
| Enterprise value | 1,457 |
| less net debt | (3,458) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | (2,001) |
| ÷ 237.39 crore shares | ₹(8) |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | (8) | (8) | (7) | (7) | (6) |
| 10.50% | (9) | (8) | (8) | (8) | (7) |
| 11.00% | (9) | (9) | (8) | (8) | (8) |
| 11.50% | (9) | (9) | (9) | (9) | (8) |
| 12.00% | (9) | (9) | (9) | (9) | (9) |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹20.93; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | (10) · (8) · (6) |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.96 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.28 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.02 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 6,338 | 6,104 | 5,575 | 5,455 | 5,346 | 5,239 | 5,134 | 5,031 | 4,931 |
| growth % | (4.9) | (3.7) | (8.7) | (2.2) | (2.0) | (2.0) | (2.0) | (2.0) | (2.0) |
| EBITDA | 263 | 247 | 290 | 352 | 342 | 335 | 329 | 322 | 316 |
| margin % | 4.1 | 4.1 | 5.2 | 6.4 | 6.4 | 6.4 | 6.4 | 6.4 | 6.4 |
| less depreciation | (213) | (222) | (216) | (216) | (214) | (210) | (205) | (201) | (197) |
| EBIT | 50 | 25 | 74 | 136 | 128 | 126 | 123 | 121 | 118 |
| less tax on EBIT | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| NOPAT | 137 | 129 | 127 | 124 | 122 | 119 | |||
| add depreciation | 213 | 222 | 216 | 216 | 214 | 210 | 205 | 201 | 197 |
| less capex | (6) | (8) | (21) | (116) | (112) | (145) | (177) | (208) | (237) |
| less working-capital build | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 786 | 635 | 260 | — | 231 | 191 | 152 | 115 | 80 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 219 | 163 | 117 | 80 | 50 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 3,545, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 136 | 128 | 126 | 123 | 121 | 118 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | (284) | (284) | (284) | (284) | (284) | |
| Profit before tax | (155) | (158) | (160) | (163) | (165) | |
| Profit after tax | 127 | (156) | (159) | (162) | (164) | (166) |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 87 | 32 | (62) | (196) | (366) | (572) |
| Working capital | (674) | (674) | (674) | (674) | (674) | (674) |
| Net block and other assets | 14,891 | 14,789 | 14,725 | 14,697 | 14,703 | 14,742 |
| Debt | 3,545 | 3,545 | 3,545 | 3,545 | 3,545 | 3,545 |
| Equity | 3,812 | 3,656 | 3,497 | 3,335 | 3,171 | 3,005 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 57 | 51 | 44 | 37 | 31 | |
| Investing (capex) | (112) | (145) | (177) | (208) | (237) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | (55) | (95) | (133) | (170) | (206) | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (55) | (95) | (133) | (170) | (206) | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | -2% | 6.4% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹(8) | (140.3)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.