Models
BAL PHARMA LTD.BALPHARMAPharmaceuticals & Biotechnology
₹86per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹86implied FY26 P/E 18.9× · EV/EBITDA 9.2×
Against CMP ₹93.00−8.0%close of 9 Oct 2026
Growth the CMP implies—%no growth rate between −20% and 45% a year brings the value to the CMP on your other inputs
Value after FY3166%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹49₹158
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹60₹125
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 99 |
| PV of terminal value | 194 |
| Enterprise value | 293 |
| less net debt | (157) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 136 |
| ÷ 1.59 crore shares | ₹86 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 91 | 103 | 118 | 136 | 158 |
| 10.50% | 78 | 88 | 100 | 115 | 132 |
| 11.00% | 67 | 76 | 86 | 97 | 111 |
| 11.50% | 58 | 65 | 73 | 83 | 94 |
| 12.00% | 49 | 55 | 62 | 71 | 80 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹93.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 47 · 85 · 126 |
| Draws below the CMP | 61% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.86 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.46 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.09 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 304 | 339 | 303 | 312 | 321 | 331 | 341 | 351 | 361 |
| growth % | 8.2 | 11.5 | (10.7) | 2.8 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 |
| EBITDA | 25 | 32 | 30 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 |
| margin % | 8.3 | 9.3 | 9.8 | 10.2 | 10.2 | 10.2 | 10.2 | 10.2 | 10.2 |
| less depreciation | (9) | (10) | (10) | (11) | (12) | (12) | (12) | (13) | (13) |
| EBIT | 16 | 21 | 20 | 21 | 21 | 22 | 22 | 23 | 24 |
| less tax on EBIT | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | |||
| NOPAT | 22 | 23 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 25 | |||
| add depreciation | 9 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 13 |
| less capex | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | (4) | (7) | (11) | (16) |
| less working-capital build | — | (4) | (4) | (4) | (4) | (4) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 23 | 329 | 21 | — | 30 | 28 | 25 | 22 | 19 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 29 | 24 | 19 | 15 | 12 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 160, dividends at 0.3% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 21 | 21 | 22 | 22 | 23 | 24 |
| Interest at 10.9% on debt | (17) | (17) | (17) | (17) | (17) | |
| Profit before tax | 4 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 6 | |
| Profit after tax | 6 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 7 |
| Dividends | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 2 | 14 | 24 | 30 | 33 | 34 |
| Working capital | 121 | 125 | 128 | 132 | 136 | 140 |
| Net block and other assets | 252 | 241 | 232 | 227 | 226 | 229 |
| Debt | 160 | 160 | 160 | 160 | 160 | 160 |
| Equity | 82 | 86 | 91 | 96 | 103 | 109 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | |
| Investing (capex) | 0 | (4) | (7) | (11) | (16) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | |
| Net change in cash | 12 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 12 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 3% | 10.2% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹86 | (8.0)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.