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Model Note · BALU FORGE INDUSTRIES LTD · 11 September 2026Page 1 of 2
Model Note
Prepared by the reader · not a MarketPing document
BALU FORGE INDUSTRIES LTD Discounted cash flow · base FY26
BALU FORGE INDUSTRIES LTD
Value per share, this model₹370
CMP 2026-09-10₹532.50
Difference(30.4)%
Growth the CMP implies45.0%/yr
This note states the assumptions and the arithmetic of one model of BALU FORGE INDUSTRIES LTD, built on its filed FY26 consolidated statements. The value is the outcome of the assumptions below and nothing else; it is not a fair value, a target or a recommendation.
Assumptions
Input
This model
Filed reference
Revenue growth, 5 years
20% a year
FY26 19.9% · 5-yr CAGR —%
EBITDA margin
27%
FY26 27.0% · 5-yr average 20.7%
Depreciation · capex, % of revenue
0.9% · 18.7%, fading to 1.2× depreciation
FY26 0.9% · 18.7%
Working capital, % of added revenue · tax
45.8% · 15.4%
167 working-capital days · effective 15.4%
Discount rate
11.00%
1-yr beta 1.48
After FY31
5% flat · mid-year discounting
—
Net debt · non-controlling interest · non-operating investments
₹41 · ₹0 · ₹0 cr
FY26 net debt ₹41 cr
Shares
12.14 crore
12.14 crore today
Source: SEBI results XBRL as filed with BSE/NSE, exchange prices; the reader's assumptions.
Projected cash flow to the firm
₹ crore
FY26
FY27
FY28
FY29
FY30
FY31
Revenue
1,107
1,329
1,595
1,914
2,296
2,755
growth %
19.9
20.0
20.0
20.0
20.0
20.0
EBITDA
300
359
431
517
620
744
Depreciation
(10)
(12)
(14)
(17)
(21)
(25)
NOPAT
245
293
352
423
507
608
less capex
(207)
(248)
(228)
(189)
(126)
(30)
less working-capital build
—
(101)
(122)
(146)
(175)
(210)
Free cash flow to firm
—
(45)
17
104
226
393
Present value
(42)
14
80
157
246
Source: the model; base year as filed.
Every figure is the reader's model over filed numbers · No rating, target or fair value is expressedmarketping.in
Model Note · BALU FORGE INDUSTRIES LTD · 11 September 2026Page 2 of 2
From enterprise to equity
PV of the 5 explicit years
455
PV of the terminal value (90% of EV)
4,083
Enterprise value
4,538
less net debt
(41)
less non-controlling interest
0
add non-operating investments
0
Equity value
4,497
÷ 12.14 crore shares
₹370
Source: the model.
Sensitivity, ₹ per share
WACC ↓ · terminal growth →
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
5.5%
6.0%
10.0%
384
418
458
507
568
10.5%
349
377
410
450
498
11.0%
320
343
370
403
442
11.5%
294
314
337
364
396
12.0%
272
289
308
331
357
Source: the model; n/a where terminal growth reaches the discount rate.
Statement
This note is the reader's own model over publicly filed information: SEBI results XBRL filed with BSE and NSE and exchange price data, assembled by MarketPing software; every assumption above is the reader's. It contains no research recommendation, no price target and no opinion by MarketPing on the merits of any security, and is not a research report within the meaning of the SEBI (Research Analysts) Regulations, 2014, Regulation 2(1)(w)(vii). Historical per-share figures are on the current share count. Where a figure is unavailable the table shows a dash rather than an estimate. Nothing here constitutes investment advice, an offer or a solicitation.
Every figure is the reader's model over filed numbers · No rating, target or fair value is expressedmarketping.in
