Models
BASILIC FLY STUDIO LTDBASILIC
₹273per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹273implied FY26 P/E 14.0× · EV/EBITDA 9.4×
Against CMP ₹180.00+51.7%close of 27 Oct 2026
Growth the CMP implies(3.6)%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY31102%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹189₹441
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹161₹395
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | (18) |
| PV of terminal value | 789 |
| Enterprise value | 771 |
| less net debt | (20) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 751 |
| ÷ 2.75 crore shares | ₹273 |
102% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 284 | 313 | 347 | 389 | 441 |
| 10.50% | 255 | 278 | 306 | 340 | 381 |
| 11.00% | 230 | 250 | 273 | 301 | 334 |
| 11.50% | 208 | 225 | 245 | 268 | 295 |
| 12.00% | 189 | 204 | 221 | 240 | 262 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹180.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 150 · 265 · 390 |
| Draws below the CMP | 17% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.91 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.34 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.04 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 304 | 408 | 530 | 689 | 896 | 1,165 | 1,514 |
| growth % | — | 34.1 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 |
| EBITDA | — | 82 | 107 | 139 | 180 | 234 | 304 |
| margin % | — | 20.1 | 20.1 | 20.1 | 20.1 | 20.1 | 20.1 |
| less depreciation | — | (16) | (21) | (28) | (36) | (47) | (61) |
| EBIT | — | 66 | 85 | 111 | 144 | 188 | 244 |
| less tax on EBIT | (16) | (20) | (26) | (34) | (44) | (58) | |
| NOPAT | 50 | 65 | 85 | 110 | 143 | 186 | |
| add depreciation | — | 16 | 21 | 28 | 36 | 47 | 61 |
| less capex | 0 | (73) | (95) | (101) | (102) | (94) | (73) |
| less working-capital build | — | (34) | (45) | (58) | (76) | (98) | |
| Free cash flow to firm | 10 | — | (43) | (33) | (14) | 20 | 76 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||
| Present value | (41) | (28) | (11) | 14 | 47 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 65, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 66 | 85 | 111 | 144 | 188 | 244 |
| Interest at 15.6% on debt | (10) | (10) | (10) | (10) | (10) | |
| Profit before tax | 75 | 101 | 134 | 177 | 234 | |
| Profit after tax | 49 | 57 | 77 | 102 | 136 | 179 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 45 | (6) | (47) | (68) | (56) | 12 |
| Working capital | 115 | 149 | 194 | 252 | 327 | 426 |
| Net block and other assets | 378 | 451 | 525 | 591 | 638 | 650 |
| Debt | 65 | 65 | 65 | 65 | 65 | 65 |
| Equity | 344 | 402 | 479 | 581 | 717 | 895 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | (0) | 0 | 0 | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 44 | 60 | 80 | 107 | 141 | |
| Investing (capex) | (95) | (101) | (102) | (94) | (73) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | (51) | (41) | (21) | 13 | 68 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (51) | (41) | (21) | 13 | 68 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 30% | 20.1% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹273 | 51.7% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.