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Model Note · BHARAT FORGE LTD · 11 September 2026Page 1 of 2
Model Note
Prepared by the reader · not a MarketPing document
BHARAT FORGE LTD Discounted cash flow · base FY26
BHARAT FORGE LTD
Value per share, this model₹110
CMP 2026-09-10₹1,944.90
Difference(94.4)%
Growth the CMP implies45.0%/yr
This note states the assumptions and the arithmetic of one model of BHARAT FORGE LTD, built on its filed FY26 consolidated statements. The value is the outcome of the assumptions below and nothing else; it is not a fair value, a target or a recommendation.
Assumptions
Input
This model
Filed reference
Revenue growth, 5 years
11% a year
FY26 11.2% · 5-yr CAGR 21.6%
EBITDA margin
16.5%
FY26 16.5% · 5-yr average 16.6%
Depreciation · capex, % of revenue
5.8% · 6.8%, fading to 1.2× depreciation
FY26 5.8% · 6.8%
Working capital, % of added revenue · tax
29.5% · 34.5%
108 working-capital days · effective 34.5%
Discount rate
11.00%
1-yr beta 1.25
After FY31
5% flat · mid-year discounting
—
Net debt · non-controlling interest · non-operating investments
₹6,027 · ₹0 · ₹0 cr
FY26 net debt ₹6,027 cr
Shares
47.81 crore
47.81 crore today
Source: SEBI results XBRL as filed with BSE/NSE, exchange prices; the reader's assumptions.
Projected cash flow to the firm
₹ crore
FY26
FY27
FY28
FY29
FY30
FY31
Revenue
16,812
18,661
20,714
22,992
25,521
28,329
growth %
11.2
11.0
11.0
11.0
11.0
11.0
EBITDA
2,772
3,079
3,418
3,794
4,211
4,674
Depreciation
(971)
(1,082)
(1,201)
(1,334)
(1,480)
(1,643)
NOPAT
1,180
1,308
1,452
1,611
1,789
1,985
less capex
(1,140)
(1,269)
(1,417)
(1,582)
(1,766)
(1,972)
less working-capital build
—
(546)
(606)
(672)
(746)
(828)
Free cash flow to firm
—
576
631
691
757
829
Present value
546
539
532
525
518
Source: the model; base year as filed.
Every figure is the reader's model over filed numbers · No rating, target or fair value is expressedmarketping.in
Model Note · BHARAT FORGE LTD · 11 September 2026Page 2 of 2
From enterprise to equity
PV of the 5 explicit years
2,661
PV of the terminal value (76% of EV)
8,606
Enterprise value
11,267
less net debt
(6,027)
less non-controlling interest
0
add non-operating investments
0
Equity value
5,240
÷ 47.81 crore shares
₹110
Source: the model.
Sensitivity, ₹ per share
WACC ↓ · terminal growth →
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
5.5%
6.0%
10.0%
117
135
157
183
216
10.5%
99
113
131
152
178
11.0%
82
95
110
127
148
11.5%
68
79
91
106
123
12.0%
56
65
76
88
102
Source: the model; n/a where terminal growth reaches the discount rate.
Statement
This note is the reader's own model over publicly filed information: SEBI results XBRL filed with BSE and NSE and exchange price data, assembled by MarketPing software; every assumption above is the reader's. It contains no research recommendation, no price target and no opinion by MarketPing on the merits of any security, and is not a research report within the meaning of the SEBI (Research Analysts) Regulations, 2014, Regulation 2(1)(w)(vii). Historical per-share figures are on the current share count. Where a figure is unavailable the table shows a dash rather than an estimate. Nothing here constitutes investment advice, an offer or a solicitation.
Every figure is the reader's model over filed numbers · No rating, target or fair value is expressedmarketping.in
