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Model Note · BLUE DART EXPRESS LTD · 11 September 2026Page 1 of 2
Model Note
Prepared by the reader · not a MarketPing document
BLUE DART EXPRESS LTD Discounted cash flow · base FY26
BLUE DART EXPRESS LTD
Value per share, this model₹1,697
CMP 2026-09-10₹4,842.00
Difference(65.0)%
Growth the CMP implies45.0%/yr
This note states the assumptions and the arithmetic of one model of BLUE DART EXPRESS LTD, built on its filed FY26 consolidated statements. The value is the outcome of the assumptions below and nothing else; it is not a fair value, a target or a recommendation.
Assumptions
Input
This model
Filed reference
Revenue growth, 5 years
7.5% a year
FY26 7.4% · 5-yr CAGR 13.3%
EBITDA margin
14.8%
FY26 14.8% · 5-yr average 17.2%
Depreciation · capex, % of revenue
8.7% · 5.1%, fading to 1.2× depreciation
FY26 8.7% · 5.1%
Working capital, % of added revenue · tax
3.6% · 24.3%
13 working-capital days · effective 24.3%
Discount rate
11.00%
1-yr beta 0.92
After FY31
5% flat · mid-year discounting
—
Net debt · non-controlling interest · non-operating investments
₹(38) · ₹0 · ₹0 cr
FY26 net debt ₹(38) cr
Shares
2.37 crore
2.37 crore today
Source: SEBI results XBRL as filed with BSE/NSE, exchange prices; the reader's assumptions.
Projected cash flow to the firm
₹ crore
FY26
FY27
FY28
FY29
FY30
FY31
Revenue
6,141
6,601
7,097
7,629
8,201
8,816
growth %
7.4
7.5
7.5
7.5
7.5
7.5
EBITDA
907
977
1,050
1,129
1,214
1,305
Depreciation
(536)
(574)
(617)
(664)
(713)
(767)
NOPAT
280
305
328
352
379
407
less capex
(315)
(337)
(457)
(593)
(747)
(920)
less working-capital build
—
(17)
(18)
(19)
(21)
(22)
Free cash flow to firm
—
526
471
404
325
232
Present value
499
402
311
225
145
Source: the model; base year as filed.
Every figure is the reader's model over filed numbers · No rating, target or fair value is expressedmarketping.in
Model Note · BLUE DART EXPRESS LTD · 11 September 2026Page 2 of 2
From enterprise to equity
PV of the 5 explicit years
1,583
PV of the terminal value (60% of EV)
2,405
Enterprise value
3,988
less net debt
38
less non-controlling interest
0
add non-operating investments
0
Equity value
4,026
÷ 2.37 crore shares
₹1,697
Source: the model.
Sensitivity, ₹ per share
WACC ↓ · terminal growth →
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
5.5%
6.0%
10.0%
1,745
1,846
1,967
2,115
2,301
10.5%
1,637
1,721
1,820
1,939
2,084
11.0%
1,544
1,614
1,697
1,794
1,911
11.5%
1,463
1,523
1,592
1,673
1,769
12.0%
1,391
1,443
1,502
1,570
1,650
Source: the model; n/a where terminal growth reaches the discount rate.
Statement
This note is the reader's own model over publicly filed information: SEBI results XBRL filed with BSE and NSE and exchange price data, assembled by MarketPing software; every assumption above is the reader's. It contains no research recommendation, no price target and no opinion by MarketPing on the merits of any security, and is not a research report within the meaning of the SEBI (Research Analysts) Regulations, 2014, Regulation 2(1)(w)(vii). Historical per-share figures are on the current share count. Where a figure is unavailable the table shows a dash rather than an estimate. Nothing here constitutes investment advice, an offer or a solicitation.
Every figure is the reader's model over filed numbers · No rating, target or fair value is expressedmarketping.in
