Models
BN AGROCHEM LTD.BNAGROCHEM
₹4per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹4implied FY26 P/E 0.8× · EV/EBITDA 3.4×
Against CMP ₹207.00−98.1%close of 2026-09-20
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY31249%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹(1)₹15
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹192₹395
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | (111) |
| PV of terminal value | 186 |
| Enterprise value | 75 |
| less net debt | (36) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 39 |
| ÷ 9.78 crore shares | ₹4 |
249% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 5 | 6 | 9 | 11 | 15 |
| 10.50% | 3 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 11 |
| 11.00% | 1 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 8 |
| 11.50% | (0) | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 |
| 12.00% | (1) | (0) | 1 | 2 | 3 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹207.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | (34) · 4 · 29 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.79 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.59 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.08 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 7 | 299 | 873 | 1,135 | 1,476 | 1,919 | 2,494 | 3,242 |
| growth % | — | 4124.1 | 191.7 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 |
| EBITDA | (3) | (37) | 22 | 28 | 37 | 48 | 62 | 81 |
| margin % | (44.0) | (12.5) | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 |
| less depreciation | 0 | (0) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (2) | (2) | (3) |
| EBIT | (3) | (37) | 21 | 27 | 35 | 46 | 60 | 78 |
| less tax on EBIT | 16 | 20 | 26 | 34 | 44 | 57 | ||
| NOPAT | 37 | 47 | 62 | 80 | 104 | 135 | ||
| add depreciation | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| less capex | 0 | 0 | (42) | (56) | (55) | (48) | (33) | (4) |
| less working-capital build | — | (41) | (53) | (69) | (90) | (117) | ||
| Free cash flow to firm | (3) | (31) | — | (48) | (45) | (35) | (16) | 18 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | |||
| Present value | (46) | (38) | (27) | (11) | 11 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 50, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 21 | 27 | 35 | 46 | 60 | 78 |
| Interest at 3% on debt | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | |
| Profit before tax | 26 | 34 | 45 | 58 | 76 | |
| Profit after tax | 34 | 45 | 59 | 77 | 101 | 133 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 14 | (37) | (84) | (122) | (141) | (125) |
| Working capital | 137 | 177 | 231 | 300 | 389 | 506 |
| Net block and other assets | 375 | 430 | 483 | 529 | 559 | 560 |
| Debt | 50 | 50 | 50 | 50 | 50 | 50 |
| Equity | 467 | 511 | 570 | 648 | 749 | 882 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 5 | 7 | 10 | 14 | 19 | |
| Investing (capex) | (56) | (55) | (48) | (33) | (4) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | (51) | (47) | (38) | (19) | 15 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (51) | (47) | (38) | (19) | 15 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 30% | 2.5% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹4 | (98.1)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.