Models
BODAL CHEMICALS LTDBODALCHEM
₹-59per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹(59)implied FY26 P/E (10.8)× · EV/EBITDA 0.3×
Against CMP ₹171.95−134.2%close of 9 Oct 2026
Growth the CMP implies—%no growth rate between −20% and 45% a year brings the value to the CMP on your other inputs
Value after FY31-182%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹(62)₹(57)
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹43₹208
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 117 |
| PV of terminal value | (75) |
| Enterprise value | 41 |
| less net debt | (783) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | (742) |
| ÷ 12.59 crore shares | ₹(59) |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | (59) | (60) | (60) | (61) | (62) |
| 10.50% | (58) | (59) | (60) | (60) | (61) |
| 11.00% | (58) | (58) | (59) | (59) | (60) |
| 11.50% | (58) | (58) | (58) | (59) | (59) |
| 12.00% | (57) | (58) | (58) | (58) | (59) |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹171.95; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | (109) · (58) · (19) |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.72 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.68 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | +0.03 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1,574 | 1,395 | 1,745 | 2,012 | 2,324 | 2,684 | 3,100 | 3,581 | 4,136 |
| growth % | (23.2) | (11.4) | 25.1 | 15.3 | 15.5 | 15.5 | 15.5 | 15.5 | 15.5 |
| EBITDA | 133 | 95 | 158 | 161 | 186 | 215 | 248 | 286 | 331 |
| margin % | 8.5 | 6.8 | 9.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 |
| less depreciation | (53) | (60) | (69) | (70) | (81) | (94) | (109) | (125) | (145) |
| EBIT | 80 | 34 | 89 | 92 | 105 | 121 | 140 | 161 | 186 |
| less tax on EBIT | (11) | (13) | (14) | (17) | (19) | (22) | |||
| NOPAT | 81 | 92 | 106 | 123 | 142 | 164 | |||
| add depreciation | 53 | 60 | 69 | 70 | 81 | 94 | 109 | 125 | 145 |
| less capex | (338) | (245) | (46) | (36) | (42) | (64) | (93) | (129) | (174) |
| less working-capital build | — | (80) | (92) | (107) | (123) | (142) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (53) | (41) | 67 | — | 52 | 44 | 32 | 15 | (7) |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 49 | 37 | 24 | 11 | (5) |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 800, dividends at 0.1% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 92 | 105 | 121 | 140 | 161 | 186 |
| Interest at 9.2% on debt | (74) | (74) | (74) | (74) | (74) | |
| Profit before tax | 31 | 47 | 66 | 88 | 113 | |
| Profit after tax | 48 | 27 | 42 | 58 | 77 | 99 |
| Dividends | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 17 | 4 | (18) | (51) | (100) | (172) |
| Working capital | 515 | 595 | 688 | 794 | 917 | 1,059 |
| Net block and other assets | 1,824 | 1,784 | 1,755 | 1,739 | 1,743 | 1,772 |
| Debt | 800 | 800 | 800 | 800 | 800 | 800 |
| Equity | 1,158 | 1,185 | 1,226 | 1,284 | 1,361 | 1,460 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) | 0 | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 29 | 43 | 60 | 79 | 102 | |
| Investing (capex) | (42) | (64) | (93) | (129) | (174) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | |
| Net change in cash | (13) | (21) | (33) | (50) | (72) | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (13) | (21) | (33) | (50) | (72) | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 15.5% | 8% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹(59) | (134.2)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.