BOMBAY SUPER HYBRID SEEDS — valuation model

BOMBAY SUPER HYBRID SEEDSBSHSLAgricultural Food & other Products

₹37per share · Base Model Note

Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.

Scenario

Value per share, your model₹37implied FY26 P/E 13.4× · EV/EBITDA 13.9×

Against CMP ₹86.51−57.2%close of 2026-09-10

Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs

Value after FY3171%share of enterprise value in the terminal

This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.

Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP

DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid

₹27₹57

52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value

₹59₹139

From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore

PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow	144
PV of terminal value	353
Enterprise value	497
less net debt	(108)
less non-controlling interest	0
add non-operating investments	0
Equity value	389
÷ 10.49 crore shares	₹37

Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore

Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm

Sensitivity · ₹ per share

Down Across

WACC ↓terminal growth →	4.0%	4.5%	5.0%	5.5%	6.0%
10.00%	39	42	46	51	57
10.50%	35	38	41	45	50
11.00%	32	34	37	40	44
11.50%	29	31	34	36	39
12.00%	27	29	31	33	36

The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹86.51; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.

Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together

10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share	31 · 37 · 45
Draws below the CMP	100%
Rank correlation with discount rate	−0.82
Rank correlation with ebitda margin	+0.55
Rank correlation with revenue growth	−0.03

Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.

Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore

History Forward

₹ crore	FY23	FY24	FY25	FY26	FY27	FY28	FY29	FY30	FY31
Revenue	228	257	359	344	330	317	304	292	281
growth %	—	12.7	39.7	(4.1)	(4.0)	(4.0)	(4.0)	(4.0)	(4.0)
EBITDA	22	28	33	36	34	33	32	30	29
margin %	9.4	11.1	9.1	10.4	10.4	10.4	10.4	10.4	10.4
less depreciation	(1)	(1)	(1)	(2)	(2)	(2)	(2)	(1)	(1)
EBIT	20	27	31	34	33	31	30	29	28
less tax on EBIT				(2)	(2)	(2)	(2)	(2)	(2)
NOPAT				32	31	30	28	27	26
add depreciation	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	1	1
less capex	(3)	(0)	(3)	(3)	(3)	(2)	(2)	(2)	(2)
less working-capital build				—	10	9	9	8	8
Free cash flow to firm	(11)	11	(34)	—	39	38	37	35	34
Discount factor					0.949	0.855	0.770	0.694	0.625
Present value					37	32	28	24	21

History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.

The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 108, dividends at 0% of profit

₹ crore	FY26	FY27	FY28	FY29	FY30	FY31
Income statement
EBIT	34	33	31	30	29	28
Interest at 6.4% on debt		(7)	(7)	(7)	(7)	(7)
Profit before tax		26	24	23	22	21
Profit after tax	27	24	23	22	21	20
Dividends	0	0	0	0	0	0
Balance sheet, year end
Cash	0	33	64	95	123	151
Working capital	239	229	220	211	203	195
Net block and other assets	15	16	17	17	18	18
Debt	108	108	108	108	108	108
Equity	131	155	178	200	221	241
Balance check	0	(0)	0	0	0	(0)
Cash flow
From operations		35	34	32	31	29
Investing (capex)		(3)	(2)	(2)	(2)	(2)
Financing (dividends)		0	0	0	0	0
Net change in cash		33	31	30	29	27
Free cash flow to equity		33	31	30	29	27

Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.

Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share

Scenario	Template	Growth	Margin	Rate	Terminal	₹ / share	vs CMP
Base · editing	DCF	-4%	10.4%	11.00%	5%	₹37	(57.2)%

A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.