Models
C2C ADVANCED SYSTEMS LTDC2C
₹161per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹161implied FY25 P/E —× · EV/EBITDA 7.3×
Against CMP ₹149.00+7.9%close of 27 Oct 2026
Growth the CMP implies—%no growth rate between −20% and 45% a year brings the value to the CMP on your other inputs
Value after FY3076%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹119₹243
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹139₹714
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY26–FY30 free cash flow | 72 |
| PV of terminal value | 232 |
| Enterprise value | 303 |
| less net debt | (36) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 267 |
| ÷ 1.66 crore shares | ₹161 |
76% of the value sits after FY30. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 167 | 181 | 197 | 218 | 243 |
| 10.50% | 152 | 164 | 177 | 194 | 214 |
| 11.00% | 140 | 149 | 161 | 174 | 190 |
| 11.50% | 129 | 137 | 147 | 158 | 171 |
| 12.00% | 119 | 126 | 135 | 144 | 155 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹149.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 115 · 159 · 206 |
| Draws below the CMP | 38% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.76 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.45 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.42 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 115 | 124 | 134 | 145 | 157 | 169 |
| growth % | — | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 |
| EBITDA | 41 | 45 | 48 | 52 | 56 | 61 |
| margin % | 36.0 | 36.0 | 36.0 | 36.0 | 36.0 | 36.0 |
| less depreciation | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (3) |
| EBIT | 40 | 43 | 46 | 50 | 54 | 58 |
| less tax on EBIT | (12) | (13) | (14) | (15) | (16) | (17) |
| NOPAT | 28 | 30 | 32 | 35 | 38 | 41 |
| add depreciation | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| less capex | (3) | (3) | (3) | (3) | (3) | (3) |
| less working-capital build | — | (13) | (14) | (15) | (17) | (18) |
| Free cash flow to firm | — | 15 | 17 | 19 | 20 | 22 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | |
| Present value | 15 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 38, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 40 | 43 | 46 | 50 | 54 | 58 |
| Interest at 2.4% on debt | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | |
| Profit before tax | 42 | 45 | 49 | 53 | 57 | |
| Profit after tax | 29 | 29 | 32 | 34 | 37 | 40 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 2 | 17 | 33 | 51 | 70 | 92 |
| Working capital | 166 | 179 | 194 | 209 | 226 | 244 |
| Net block and other assets | 95 | 96 | 97 | 98 | 99 | 100 |
| Debt | 38 | 38 | 38 | 38 | 38 | 38 |
| Equity | 198 | 227 | 259 | 293 | 331 | 371 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 18 | 20 | 21 | 23 | 25 | |
| Investing (capex) | (3) | (3) | (3) | (3) | (3) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 15 | 16 | 18 | 20 | 22 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 15 | 16 | 18 | 20 | 22 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY25 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 8% | 36% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹161 | 7.9% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.