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Model Note · CHAMBAL FERTILIZERS LTD · 11 September 2026Page 1 of 2
Model Note
Prepared by the reader · not a MarketPing document
CHAMBAL FERTILIZERS LTD Discounted cash flow · base FY26
CHAMBAL FERTILIZERS LTD
Value per share, this model₹906
CMP 2026-09-10₹419.40
Difference116.0%
Growth the CMP implies(10.3)%/yr
This note states the assumptions and the arithmetic of one model of CHAMBAL FERTILIZERS LTD, built on its filed FY26 consolidated statements. The value is the outcome of the assumptions below and nothing else; it is not a fair value, a target or a recommendation.
Assumptions
Input
This model
Filed reference
Revenue growth, 5 years
25% a year
FY26 24.9% · 5-yr CAGR 10.3%
EBITDA margin
12.9%
FY26 12.9% · 5-yr average 12.0%
Depreciation · capex, % of revenue
1.7% · 4.3%, fading to 1.2× depreciation
FY26 1.7% · 4.3%
Working capital, % of added revenue · tax
16.4% · 25.5%
60 working-capital days · effective 25.5%
Discount rate
11.00%
1-yr beta 0.95
After FY31
5% flat · mid-year discounting
—
Net debt · non-controlling interest · non-operating investments
₹747 · ₹0 · ₹0 cr
FY26 net debt ₹747 cr
Shares
40.07 crore
40.07 crore today
Source: SEBI results XBRL as filed with BSE/NSE, exchange prices; the reader's assumptions.
Projected cash flow to the firm
₹ crore
FY26
FY27
FY28
FY29
FY30
FY31
Revenue
20,794
25,992
32,490
40,613
50,766
63,457
growth %
24.9
25.0
25.0
25.0
25.0
25.0
EBITDA
2,678
3,353
4,191
5,239
6,549
8,186
Depreciation
(349)
(442)
(552)
(690)
(863)
(1,079)
NOPAT
1,735
2,169
2,711
3,389
4,236
5,295
less capex
(886)
(1,118)
(1,214)
(1,287)
(1,322)
(1,295)
less working-capital build
—
(853)
(1,066)
(1,332)
(1,665)
(2,081)
Free cash flow to firm
—
640
984
1,460
2,111
2,998
Present value
608
842
1,124
1,465
1,874
Source: the model; base year as filed.
Every figure is the reader's model over filed numbers · No rating, target or fair value is expressedmarketping.in
Model Note · CHAMBAL FERTILIZERS LTD · 11 September 2026Page 2 of 2
From enterprise to equity
PV of the 5 explicit years
5,913
PV of the terminal value (84% of EV)
31,133
Enterprise value
37,046
less net debt
(747)
less non-controlling interest
0
add non-operating investments
0
Equity value
36,299
÷ 40.07 crore shares
₹906
Source: the model.
Sensitivity, ₹ per share
WACC ↓ · terminal growth →
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
5.5%
6.0%
10.0%
938
1,016
1,109
1,222
1,364
10.5%
858
922
998
1,089
1,201
11.0%
789
843
906
981
1,070
11.5%
729
775
828
890
964
12.0%
677
717
762
814
875
Source: the model; n/a where terminal growth reaches the discount rate.
Statement
This note is the reader's own model over publicly filed information: SEBI results XBRL filed with BSE and NSE and exchange price data, assembled by MarketPing software; every assumption above is the reader's. It contains no research recommendation, no price target and no opinion by MarketPing on the merits of any security, and is not a research report within the meaning of the SEBI (Research Analysts) Regulations, 2014, Regulation 2(1)(w)(vii). Historical per-share figures are on the current share count. Where a figure is unavailable the table shows a dash rather than an estimate. Nothing here constitutes investment advice, an offer or a solicitation.
Every figure is the reader's model over filed numbers · No rating, target or fair value is expressedmarketping.in
