Models
CHEMBOND CHEMICAL LIMITEDCHEMBONDCH
₹179per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹179implied FY26 P/E 12.7× · EV/EBITDA 9.9×
Against CMP ₹218.25−17.8%close of 8 Oct 2026
Growth the CMP implies—%no growth rate between −20% and 45% a year brings the value to the CMP on your other inputs
Value after FY3177%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹139₹259
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹105₹290
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 108 |
| PV of terminal value | 363 |
| Enterprise value | 470 |
| less net debt | 12 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 482 |
| ÷ 2.69 crore shares | ₹179 |
77% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 185 | 199 | 215 | 234 | 259 |
| 10.50% | 171 | 182 | 195 | 211 | 231 |
| 11.00% | 159 | 168 | 179 | 192 | 208 |
| 11.50% | 148 | 156 | 166 | 176 | 189 |
| 12.00% | 139 | 146 | 154 | 163 | 174 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹218.25; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 142 · 178 · 219 |
| Draws below the CMP | 90% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.81 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.53 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.04 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 292 | 326 | 364 | 405 | 452 | 504 | 562 |
| growth % | — | 11.6 | 11.5 | 11.5 | 11.5 | 11.5 | 11.5 |
| EBITDA | 42 | 47 | 53 | 59 | 66 | 73 | 82 |
| margin % | 14.3 | 14.5 | 14.5 | 14.5 | 14.5 | 14.5 | 14.5 |
| less depreciation | (5) | (5) | (6) | (6) | (7) | (8) | (9) |
| EBIT | 37 | 42 | 47 | 52 | 58 | 65 | 73 |
| less tax on EBIT | (10) | (11) | (12) | (14) | (15) | (17) | |
| NOPAT | 32 | 36 | 40 | 45 | 50 | 56 | |
| add depreciation | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 |
| less capex | (5) | (7) | (7) | (8) | (9) | (10) | (11) |
| less working-capital build | — | (12) | (14) | (15) | (17) | (19) | |
| Free cash flow to firm | 5 | — | 22 | 25 | 28 | 31 | 35 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||
| Present value | 21 | 21 | 22 | 22 | 22 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 0, dividends at 9.7% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 42 | 47 | 52 | 58 | 65 | 73 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Profit before tax | 47 | 52 | 58 | 65 | 73 | |
| Profit after tax | 35 | 36 | 40 | 45 | 50 | 56 |
| Dividends | (3) | (3) | (4) | (4) | (5) | (5) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 12 | 31 | 52 | 76 | 102 | 131 |
| Working capital | 107 | 119 | 133 | 148 | 165 | 184 |
| Net block and other assets | 135 | 136 | 138 | 140 | 141 | 143 |
| Debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Equity | 207 | 240 | 276 | 317 | 362 | 412 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) | 0 | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 30 | 33 | 37 | 41 | 46 | |
| Investing (capex) | (7) | (8) | (9) | (10) | (11) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (3) | (4) | (4) | (5) | (5) | |
| Net change in cash | 19 | 21 | 24 | 26 | 30 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 22 | 25 | 28 | 31 | 35 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 11.5% | 14.5% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹179 | (17.8)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.