Models
CHEMBOND MATERIALTECH LTDCHEMBOND
₹48per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹48implied FY26 P/E 4.4× · EV/EBITDA 3.6×
Against CMP ₹182.35−73.5%close of 8 Oct 2026
Growth the CMP implies—%no growth rate between −20% and 45% a year brings the value to the CMP on your other inputs
Value after FY31155%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹29₹89
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹105₹237
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | (33) |
| PV of terminal value | 93 |
| Enterprise value | 60 |
| less net debt | 5 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 65 |
| ÷ 1.34 crore shares | ₹48 |
155% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 51 | 58 | 66 | 76 | 89 |
| 10.50% | 44 | 50 | 56 | 64 | 74 |
| 11.00% | 38 | 43 | 48 | 55 | 63 |
| 11.50% | 33 | 37 | 42 | 47 | 54 |
| 12.00% | 29 | 32 | 36 | 41 | 46 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹182.35; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | (7) · 48 · 91 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.81 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.53 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.20 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 440 | 462 | 201 | 250 | 310 | 385 | 477 | 591 | 733 |
| growth % | 26.1 | 4.9 | (56.4) | 24.2 | 24.0 | 24.0 | 24.0 | 24.0 | 24.0 |
| EBITDA | 35 | 49 | 15 | 17 | 21 | 26 | 32 | 40 | 49 |
| margin % | 7.9 | 10.7 | 7.5 | 6.7 | 6.7 | 6.7 | 6.7 | 6.7 | 6.7 |
| less depreciation | (5) | (6) | (3) | (4) | (4) | (5) | (7) | (8) | (10) |
| EBIT | 30 | 44 | 12 | 13 | 16 | 20 | 25 | 31 | 39 |
| less tax on EBIT | (2) | (3) | (3) | (4) | (5) | (7) | |||
| NOPAT | 11 | 14 | 17 | 21 | 26 | 32 | |||
| add depreciation | 5 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 10 |
| less capex | (15) | (12) | (4) | (21) | (26) | (26) | (24) | (20) | (12) |
| less working-capital build | — | (9) | (11) | (14) | (17) | (21) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (12) | 16 | 15 | — | (17) | (15) | (10) | (3) | 9 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | (16) | (13) | (8) | (2) | 6 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 4, dividends at 18.3% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 13 | 16 | 20 | 25 | 31 | 39 |
| Interest at 10.8% on debt | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | |
| Profit before tax | 16 | 20 | 25 | 31 | 38 | |
| Profit after tax | 13 | 13 | 17 | 21 | 26 | 32 |
| Dividends | (2) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | (6) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 9 | (10) | (29) | (43) | (51) | (48) |
| Working capital | 38 | 47 | 58 | 72 | 89 | 110 |
| Net block and other assets | 172 | 194 | 215 | 232 | 244 | 246 |
| Debt | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| Equity | 167 | 178 | 191 | 208 | 229 | 255 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 9 | 11 | 13 | 17 | 21 | |
| Investing (capex) | (26) | (26) | (24) | (20) | (12) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | (6) | |
| Net change in cash | (20) | (18) | (14) | (8) | 3 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (17) | (15) | (11) | (3) | 9 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 24% | 6.7% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹48 | (73.5)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.