Models
Citizen Solar LimitedBSE 538786
₹486per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹486implied FY26 P/E 46.4× · EV/EBITDA 23.7×
Against CMP ₹166.00+193.0%close of 28 Oct 2026
Growth the CMP implies4.7%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3189%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹339₹782
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹149₹318
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 84 |
| PV of terminal value | 705 |
| Enterprise value | 789 |
| less net debt | (106) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 683 |
| ÷ 1.40 crore shares | ₹486 |
89% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 507 | 557 | 617 | 690 | 782 |
| 10.50% | 455 | 496 | 545 | 604 | 677 |
| 11.00% | 410 | 445 | 486 | 535 | 592 |
| 11.50% | 372 | 402 | 436 | 476 | 524 |
| 12.00% | 339 | 364 | 394 | 427 | 467 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹166.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 336 · 480 · 674 |
| Draws below the CMP | 0% |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.73 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.45 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.45 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2 | 4 | 4 | 311 | 404 | 525 | 683 | 888 | 1,154 |
| growth % | 300.4 | 65.1 | 3.3 | 7578.2 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 |
| EBITDA | (0) | (0) | (0) | 33 | 43 | 56 | 73 | 95 | 124 |
| margin % | (13.5) | (9.5) | (8.1) | 10.7 | 10.7 | 10.7 | 10.7 | 10.7 | 10.7 |
| less depreciation | 0 | 0 | 0 | (2) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | (7) |
| EBIT | (0) | (0) | (0) | 31 | 41 | 53 | 69 | 90 | 117 |
| less tax on EBIT | (8) | (10) | (14) | (18) | (23) | (30) | |||
| NOPAT | 23 | 30 | 40 | 51 | 67 | 87 | |||
| add depreciation | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 7 |
| less capex | 0 | 0 | 0 | (23) | (30) | (30) | (27) | (21) | (8) |
| less working-capital build | — | (6) | (8) | (10) | (14) | (18) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 0 | (0) | 0 | — | (3) | 5 | 18 | 38 | 68 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | (3) | 4 | 14 | 26 | 42 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 106, dividends at 17.8% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 31 | 41 | 53 | 69 | 90 | 117 |
| Interest at 2.2% on debt | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | |
| Profit before tax | 38 | 51 | 67 | 87 | 114 | |
| Profit after tax | 22 | 29 | 38 | 50 | 65 | 85 |
| Dividends | (4) | (5) | (7) | (9) | (12) | (15) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 0 | (10) | (13) | (6) | 18 | 69 |
| Working capital | 20 | 27 | 35 | 45 | 59 | 76 |
| Net block and other assets | 157 | 184 | 211 | 234 | 250 | 251 |
| Debt | 106 | 106 | 106 | 106 | 106 | 106 |
| Equity | 42 | 65 | 97 | 137 | 191 | 261 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 25 | 33 | 43 | 57 | 74 | |
| Investing (capex) | (30) | (30) | (27) | (21) | (8) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (5) | (7) | (9) | (12) | (15) | |
| Net change in cash | (10) | (3) | 7 | 24 | 51 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (5) | 3 | 16 | 36 | 66 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 30% | 10.7% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹486 | 193.0% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.