Models
COFFEE DAY ENTERPRISE LTDCOFFEEDAY
₹170per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹170implied FY26 P/E 17.6× · EV/EBITDA 11.1×
Against CMP ₹30.21+463.6%close of 2026-09-20
Growth the CMP implies(20.0)%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3169%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹130₹251
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹21₹46
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 1,292 |
| PV of terminal value | 2,858 |
| Enterprise value | 4,150 |
| less net debt | (553) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 3,597 |
| ÷ 21.13 crore shares | ₹170 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 176 | 190 | 206 | 226 | 251 |
| 10.50% | 162 | 173 | 187 | 202 | 222 |
| 11.00% | 150 | 159 | 170 | 183 | 199 |
| 11.50% | 139 | 147 | 157 | 167 | 180 |
| 12.00% | 130 | 137 | 145 | 154 | 164 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹30.21; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 133 · 169 · 211 |
| Draws below the CMP | 0% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.79 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.54 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.15 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 924 | 1,013 | 1,078 | 1,116 | 1,155 | 1,195 | 1,237 | 1,280 | 1,325 |
| growth % | 58.9 | 9.7 | 6.4 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 |
| EBITDA | (243) | (312) | 181 | 374 | 387 | 400 | 414 | 429 | 444 |
| margin % | (26.3) | (30.7) | 16.8 | 33.5 | 33.5 | 33.5 | 33.5 | 33.5 | 33.5 |
| less depreciation | (161) | (131) | (125) | (129) | (134) | (139) | (143) | (149) | (154) |
| EBIT | (405) | (443) | 56 | 244 | 253 | 262 | 271 | 280 | 290 |
| less tax on EBIT | 15 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 17 | 18 | |||
| NOPAT | 259 | 268 | 278 | 287 | 298 | 308 | |||
| add depreciation | 161 | 131 | 125 | 129 | 134 | 139 | 143 | 149 | 154 |
| less capex | 0 | 0 | (33) | (26) | (27) | (62) | (100) | (141) | (184) |
| less working-capital build | — | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 172 | 189 | 162 | — | 374 | 352 | 329 | 303 | 275 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 355 | 301 | 253 | 210 | 172 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 579, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 244 | 253 | 262 | 271 | 280 | 290 |
| Interest at 9.5% on debt | (55) | (55) | (55) | (55) | (55) | |
| Profit before tax | 198 | 207 | 216 | 225 | 235 | |
| Profit after tax | 203 | 210 | 219 | 229 | 239 | 250 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 26 | 341 | 635 | 906 | 1,151 | 1,367 |
| Working capital | 49 | 51 | 52 | 54 | 56 | 58 |
| Net block and other assets | 4,463 | 4,356 | 4,279 | 4,236 | 4,229 | 4,259 |
| Debt | 579 | 579 | 579 | 579 | 579 | 579 |
| Equity | 3,156 | 3,366 | 3,586 | 3,815 | 4,054 | 4,304 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 342 | 356 | 371 | 386 | 401 | |
| Investing (capex) | (27) | (62) | (100) | (141) | (184) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 316 | 294 | 270 | 245 | 217 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 316 | 294 | 270 | 245 | 217 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 3.5% | 33.5% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹170 | 463.6% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.