Models
CONFIDENCE FUTURIST ENE LCFELCommercial Services & Supplies
₹-2per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹(2)implied FY26 P/E (0.7)× · EV/EBITDA 11.1×
Against CMP ₹44.00−103.7%close of 8 Oct 2026
Growth the CMP implies—%no growth rate between −20% and 45% a year brings the value to the CMP on your other inputs
Value after FY3161%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹(14)₹22
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹24₹53
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 64 |
| PV of terminal value | 101 |
| Enterprise value | 165 |
| less net debt | (169) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | (4) |
| ÷ 2.50 crore shares | ₹(2) |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 0 | 4 | 9 | 15 | 22 |
| 10.50% | (4) | (1) | 3 | 8 | 14 |
| 11.00% | (8) | (5) | (2) | 2 | 7 |
| 11.50% | (11) | (9) | (6) | (3) | 1 |
| 12.00% | (14) | (12) | (9) | (7) | (3) |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹44.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | (13) · (2) · 11 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.82 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.54 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.02 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 122 | 176 | 249 | 158 | 150 | 143 | 136 | 129 | 122 |
| growth % | 128.6 | 43.8 | 41.8 | (36.6) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) |
| EBITDA | 21 | 25 | 23 | 15 | 14 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 12 |
| margin % | 17.0 | 13.9 | 9.2 | 9.4 | 9.4 | 9.4 | 9.4 | 9.4 | 9.4 |
| less depreciation | (11) | (11) | (9) | (9) | (9) | (8) | (8) | (7) | (7) |
| EBIT | 10 | 14 | 14 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 |
| less tax on EBIT | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | |||
| NOPAT | 8 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 7 | |||
| add depreciation | 11 | 11 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 7 |
| less capex | (20) | (12) | (53) | 0 | 0 | (2) | (5) | (7) | (9) |
| less working-capital build | — | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (49) | 16 | (117) | — | 22 | 19 | 15 | 12 | 10 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 21 | 16 | 12 | 9 | 6 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 169, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 |
| Interest at 5.2% on debt | (9) | (9) | (9) | (9) | (9) | |
| Profit before tax | (3) | (4) | (4) | (4) | (4) | |
| Profit after tax | 6 | (5) | (5) | (6) | (6) | (6) |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 0 | 10 | 15 | 18 | 17 | 14 |
| Working capital | 114 | 108 | 103 | 97 | 93 | 88 |
| Net block and other assets | 292 | 283 | 277 | 274 | 274 | 275 |
| Debt | 169 | 169 | 169 | 169 | 169 | 169 |
| Equity | 207 | 202 | 196 | 190 | 184 | 178 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 9 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 5 | |
| Investing (capex) | 0 | (2) | (5) | (7) | (9) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 9 | 6 | 2 | (1) | (3) | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 9 | 6 | 2 | (1) | (3) | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | -5% | 9.4% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹(2) | (103.7)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.