Models
CONTROL PRINT LIMITEDCONTROLPRIT - Hardware
₹228per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹228implied FY26 P/E 9.3× · EV/EBITDA 3.7×
Against CMP ₹596.90−61.9%close of 2026-09-20
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3180%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹176₹330
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹517₹899
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 70 |
| PV of terminal value | 277 |
| Enterprise value | 347 |
| less net debt | 17 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 364 |
| ÷ 1.60 crore shares | ₹228 |
80% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 235 | 252 | 273 | 298 | 330 |
| 10.50% | 217 | 231 | 248 | 269 | 293 |
| 11.00% | 202 | 214 | 228 | 244 | 264 |
| 11.50% | 188 | 198 | 210 | 224 | 240 |
| 12.00% | 176 | 185 | 195 | 207 | 221 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹596.90; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 108 · 225 · 329 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.79 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.55 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.22 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 304 | 359 | 425 | 482 | 547 | 621 | 705 | 800 | 908 |
| growth % | 18.8 | 18.1 | 18.3 | 13.4 | 13.5 | 13.5 | 13.5 | 13.5 | 13.5 |
| EBITDA | 76 | 86 | 80 | 93 | 105 | 119 | 135 | 154 | 174 |
| margin % | 25.1 | 24.0 | 18.8 | 19.2 | 19.2 | 19.2 | 19.2 | 19.2 | 19.2 |
| less depreciation | (15) | (14) | (16) | (19) | (21) | (24) | (27) | (31) | (35) |
| EBIT | 61 | 72 | 64 | 74 | 84 | 95 | 108 | 122 | 139 |
| less tax on EBIT | (30) | (34) | (38) | (43) | (49) | (56) | |||
| NOPAT | 44 | 50 | 57 | 65 | 73 | 83 | |||
| add depreciation | 15 | 14 | 16 | 19 | 21 | 24 | 27 | 31 | 35 |
| less capex | (27) | (42) | (27) | (26) | (30) | (32) | (36) | (39) | (42) |
| less working-capital build | — | (30) | (34) | (38) | (44) | (49) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 27 | 8 | 23 | — | 12 | 15 | 18 | 22 | 27 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 17 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 1, dividends at 30.7% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 74 | 84 | 95 | 108 | 122 | 139 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | |
| Profit before tax | 84 | 95 | 108 | 122 | 139 | |
| Profit after tax | 52 | 50 | 57 | 65 | 73 | 83 |
| Dividends | (16) | (15) | (17) | (20) | (22) | (26) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 18 | 15 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 11 |
| Working capital | 221 | 251 | 285 | 323 | 366 | 416 |
| Net block and other assets | 342 | 350 | 358 | 366 | 374 | 381 |
| Debt | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Equity | 451 | 486 | 525 | 570 | 621 | 678 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 42 | 47 | 54 | 61 | 69 | |
| Investing (capex) | (30) | (32) | (36) | (39) | (42) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (15) | (17) | (20) | (22) | (26) | |
| Net change in cash | (3) | (3) | (2) | (0) | 1 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 12 | 15 | 18 | 22 | 27 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 13.5% | 19.2% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹228 | (61.9)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.