Models
DAVANGERE SUGAR COMPANY LDAVANGEREAgricultural Food & other Products
₹-1per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹(1)implied FY26 P/E (4.8)× · EV/EBITDA 2.0×
Against CMP ₹2.16−146.7%close of 2026-09-20
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3146%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹(1)₹(1)
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹2₹6
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 53 |
| PV of terminal value | 46 |
| Enterprise value | 99 |
| less net debt | (243) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | (144) |
| ÷ 143.00 crore shares | ₹(1) |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) |
| 10.50% | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) |
| 11.00% | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) |
| 11.50% | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) |
| 12.00% | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹2.16; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | (2) · (1) · (0) |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.78 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.61 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.04 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 280 | 217 | 215 | 239 | 265 | 294 | 327 | 362 | 402 |
| growth % | 125.3 | (22.7) | (0.7) | 11.1 | 11.0 | 11.0 | 11.0 | 11.0 | 11.0 |
| EBITDA | 56 | 45 | 52 | 49 | 54 | 60 | 67 | 74 | 82 |
| margin % | 19.9 | 20.9 | 24.2 | 20.4 | 20.4 | 20.4 | 20.4 | 20.4 | 20.4 |
| less depreciation | (12) | (12) | (13) | (13) | (14) | (16) | (17) | (19) | (21) |
| EBIT | 44 | 33 | 39 | 36 | 40 | 44 | 49 | 55 | 61 |
| less tax on EBIT | (8) | (9) | (10) | (11) | (12) | (14) | |||
| NOPAT | 28 | 31 | 34 | 38 | 42 | 47 | |||
| add depreciation | 12 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 14 | 16 | 17 | 19 | 21 |
| less capex | (20) | (22) | (3) | (0) | (0) | (5) | (11) | (17) | (26) |
| less working-capital build | — | (25) | (28) | (31) | (35) | (38) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 61 | (33) | (7) | — | 19 | 17 | 14 | 10 | 4 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 19 | 15 | 11 | 7 | 3 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 250, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 36 | 40 | 44 | 49 | 55 | 61 |
| Interest at 10.5% on debt | (26) | (26) | (26) | (26) | (26) | |
| Profit before tax | 14 | 18 | 23 | 28 | 34 | |
| Profit after tax | 9 | 11 | 14 | 18 | 22 | 27 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 7 | 6 | 2 | (4) | (15) | (31) |
| Working capital | 230 | 255 | 283 | 314 | 349 | 387 |
| Net block and other assets | 603 | 589 | 579 | 572 | 570 | 574 |
| Debt | 250 | 250 | 250 | 250 | 250 | 250 |
| Equity | 505 | 515 | 530 | 547 | 569 | 596 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | (1) | 2 | 4 | 7 | 10 | |
| Investing (capex) | (0) | (5) | (11) | (17) | (26) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | (1) | (3) | (7) | (11) | (16) | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (1) | (3) | (7) | (11) | (16) | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 11% | 20.4% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹(1) | (146.7)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.