Models
DCM SHRIRAM IND LTDDCMSRINDAgricultural Food & other Products
₹98per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹98implied FY25 P/E 14.1× · EV/EBITDA 6.8×
Against CMP ₹38.32+157.0%close of 8 Oct 2026
Growth the CMP implies—%no growth rate between −20% and 45% a year brings the value to the CMP on your other inputs
Value after FY3075%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹64₹167
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹32₹180
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY26–FY30 free cash flow | 333 |
| PV of terminal value | 1,012 |
| Enterprise value | 1,345 |
| less net debt | (488) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 857 |
| ÷ 8.70 crore shares | ₹98 |
75% of the value sits after FY30. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 104 | 115 | 129 | 146 | 167 |
| 10.50% | 91 | 101 | 112 | 126 | 143 |
| 11.00% | 81 | 89 | 98 | 110 | 123 |
| 11.50% | 72 | 79 | 87 | 96 | 107 |
| 12.00% | 64 | 70 | 77 | 84 | 94 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹38.32; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 74 · 99 · 129 |
| Draws below the CMP | 0% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.70 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.69 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.03 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2,123 | 2,351 | 2,083 | 2,052 | 2,021 | 1,991 | 1,961 | 1,931 | 1,902 |
| growth % | 9.3 | 10.7 | (11.4) | (1.5) | (1.5) | (1.5) | (1.5) | (1.5) | (1.5) |
| EBITDA | 142 | 142 | 224 | 199 | 196 | 193 | 190 | 187 | 185 |
| margin % | 6.7 | 6.1 | 10.8 | 9.7 | 9.7 | 9.7 | 9.7 | 9.7 | 9.7 |
| less depreciation | (33) | (36) | (39) | (40) | (40) | (40) | (39) | (39) | (38) |
| EBIT | 110 | 107 | 186 | 159 | 156 | 153 | 151 | 149 | 146 |
| less tax on EBIT | (56) | (55) | (54) | (53) | (52) | (52) | |||
| NOPAT | 103 | 101 | 99 | 98 | 96 | 95 | |||
| add depreciation | 33 | 36 | 39 | 40 | 40 | 40 | 39 | 39 | 38 |
| less capex | (135) | (53) | (36) | (78) | (77) | (69) | (61) | (53) | (46) |
| less working-capital build | — | 11 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 10 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (76) | 116 | 41 | — | 75 | 81 | 87 | 92 | 97 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 71 | 69 | 67 | 64 | 61 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 522, dividends at 17.4% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 159 | 156 | 153 | 151 | 149 | 146 |
| Interest at 6.9% on debt | (36) | (36) | (36) | (36) | (36) | |
| Profit before tax | 120 | 117 | 115 | 113 | 110 | |
| Profit after tax | 101 | 77 | 76 | 74 | 73 | 71 |
| Dividends | (18) | (13) | (13) | (13) | (13) | (12) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 34 | 72 | 117 | 167 | 223 | 285 |
| Working capital | 731 | 720 | 710 | 699 | 688 | 678 |
| Net block and other assets | 1,546 | 1,582 | 1,611 | 1,633 | 1,647 | 1,655 |
| Debt | 522 | 522 | 522 | 522 | 522 | 522 |
| Equity | 899 | 963 | 1,026 | 1,087 | 1,147 | 1,206 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 129 | 126 | 124 | 122 | 120 | |
| Investing (capex) | (77) | (69) | (61) | (53) | (46) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (13) | (13) | (13) | (13) | (12) | |
| Net change in cash | 38 | 45 | 51 | 56 | 62 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 52 | 58 | 63 | 69 | 74 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY25 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | -1.5% | 9.7% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹98 | 157.0% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.