Models
Desco Infratech LimitedBSE 544387Construction
₹437per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹437implied FY26 P/E —× · EV/EBITDA 14.4×
Against CMP ₹167.80+160.5%close of 6 Nov 2026
Growth the CMP implies(14.8)%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3177%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹337₹637
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹122₹269
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 75 |
| PV of terminal value | 259 |
| Enterprise value | 335 |
| less net debt | 1 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 336 |
| ÷ 0.77 crore shares | ₹437 |
77% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 452 | 485 | 526 | 575 | 637 |
| 10.50% | 416 | 444 | 477 | 517 | 566 |
| 11.00% | 386 | 410 | 437 | 470 | 509 |
| 11.50% | 360 | 380 | 403 | 430 | 462 |
| 12.00% | 337 | 354 | 374 | 397 | 423 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹167.80; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 365 · 436 · 522 |
| Draws below the CMP | 0% |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.68 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.55 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.41 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 119 | 128 | 138 | 149 | 161 | 174 |
| growth % | — | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 |
| EBITDA | 23 | 25 | 27 | 29 | 32 | 34 |
| margin % | 19.6 | 19.6 | 19.6 | 19.6 | 19.6 | 19.6 |
| less depreciation | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| EBIT | 23 | 25 | 27 | 29 | 32 | 34 |
| less tax on EBIT | (6) | (6) | (7) | (7) | (8) | (9) |
| NOPAT | 17 | 19 | 20 | 22 | 24 | 26 |
| add depreciation | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| less capex | (3) | (3) | (2) | (2) | (1) | 0 |
| less working-capital build | — | (0) | (0) | (1) | (1) | (1) |
| Free cash flow to firm | — | 15 | 17 | 20 | 22 | 25 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | |
| Present value | 14 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 16 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 0, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 23 | 25 | 27 | 29 | 32 | 34 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Profit before tax | 25 | 27 | 29 | 32 | 34 | |
| Profit after tax | 0 | 19 | 20 | 22 | 24 | 26 |
| Dividends | (0) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 1 | 16 | 33 | 53 | 75 | 100 |
| Working capital | 5 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 8 |
| Net block and other assets | 99 | 102 | 105 | 106 | 107 | 107 |
| Debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Equity | 0 | 19 | 39 | 61 | 85 | 110 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 18 | 20 | 21 | 23 | 25 | |
| Investing (capex) | (3) | (2) | (2) | (1) | 0 | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 15 | 17 | 20 | 22 | 25 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 15 | 17 | 20 | 22 | 25 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 8% | 19.6% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹437 | 160.5% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.