₹262per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹262implied FY26 P/E 19.5× · EV/EBITDA 15.5×
Against CMP ₹19.50+1241.7%close of 8 Oct 2026
Growth the CMP implies—%no growth rate between −20% and 45% a year brings the value to the CMP on your other inputs
Value after FY3178%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹200₹385
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹19₹44
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 325 |
| PV of terminal value | 1,172 |
| Enterprise value | 1,498 |
| less net debt | (23) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 1,475 |
| ÷ 5.64 crore shares | ₹262 |
78% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 271 | 291 | 316 | 347 | 385 |
| 10.50% | 249 | 266 | 286 | 311 | 341 |
| 11.00% | 230 | 245 | 262 | 282 | 306 |
| 11.50% | 214 | 226 | 241 | 257 | 277 |
| 12.00% | 200 | 211 | 223 | 237 | 253 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹19.50; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 215 · 260 · 316 |
| Draws below the CMP | 0% |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.64 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.58 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.44 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 124 | 164 | 171 | 190 | 210 | 233 | 259 | 288 | 319 |
| growth % | 24.4 | 31.8 | 4.3 | 11.0 | 11.0 | 11.0 | 11.0 | 11.0 | 11.0 |
| EBITDA | 7 | 14 | 10 | 97 | 107 | 119 | 132 | 147 | 163 |
| margin % | 5.6 | 8.4 | 6.1 | 51.1 | 51.1 | 51.1 | 51.1 | 51.1 | 51.1 |
| less depreciation | (1) | (1) | (3) | (3) | (4) | (4) | (4) | (5) | (5) |
| EBIT | 6 | 12 | 7 | 94 | 104 | 115 | 128 | 142 | 158 |
| less tax on EBIT | (19) | (21) | (23) | (26) | (29) | (32) | |||
| NOPAT | 75 | 83 | 92 | 102 | 113 | 126 | |||
| add depreciation | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 |
| less capex | (1) | (2) | (5) | (14) | (16) | (14) | (12) | (10) | (7) |
| less working-capital build | — | (8) | (9) | (10) | (11) | (12) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (3) | (3) | (13) | — | 63 | 73 | 84 | 98 | 113 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 59 | 62 | 65 | 68 | 71 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 29, dividends at 0.7% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 94 | 104 | 115 | 128 | 142 | 158 |
| Interest at 11.6% on debt | (3) | (3) | (3) | (3) | (3) | |
| Profit before tax | 101 | 112 | 125 | 139 | 154 | |
| Profit after tax | 76 | 80 | 89 | 99 | 111 | 123 |
| Dividends | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 6 | 66 | 135 | 216 | 310 | 420 |
| Working capital | 71 | 79 | 88 | 97 | 108 | 120 |
| Net block and other assets | 111 | 124 | 134 | 142 | 147 | 149 |
| Debt | 29 | 29 | 29 | 29 | 29 | 29 |
| Equity | 109 | 189 | 278 | 376 | 486 | 609 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 76 | 85 | 94 | 105 | 117 | |
| Investing (capex) | (16) | (14) | (12) | (10) | (7) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | |
| Net change in cash | 59 | 69 | 81 | 94 | 109 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 60 | 70 | 82 | 95 | 110 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 11% | 51.1% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹262 | 1241.7% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.