Models
DWARIKESH SUGAR IND LTDDWARKESHAgricultural Food & other Products
₹-5per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹(5)implied FY26 P/E (7.0)× · EV/EBITDA 2.5×
Against CMP ₹44.87−112.1%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3146%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹(7)₹(2)
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹32₹60
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 119 |
| PV of terminal value | 101 |
| Enterprise value | 220 |
| less net debt | (321) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | (101) |
| ÷ 18.53 crore shares | ₹(5) |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | (5) | (5) | (4) | (3) | (2) |
| 10.50% | (6) | (5) | (5) | (4) | (3) |
| 11.00% | (6) | (6) | (5) | (5) | (4) |
| 11.50% | (7) | (6) | (6) | (6) | (5) |
| 12.00% | (7) | (7) | (7) | (6) | (6) |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹44.87; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | (13) · (6) · 1 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.79 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.59 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.11 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2,103 | 1,710 | 1,359 | 1,402 | 1,444 | 1,487 | 1,532 | 1,578 | 1,625 |
| growth % | 6.5 | (18.7) | (20.5) | 3.2 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 |
| EBITDA | 215 | 205 | 113 | 87 | 90 | 92 | 95 | 98 | 101 |
| margin % | 10.2 | 12.0 | 8.4 | 6.2 | 6.2 | 6.2 | 6.2 | 6.2 | 6.2 |
| less depreciation | (50) | (53) | (49) | (37) | (38) | (39) | (40) | (41) | (42) |
| EBIT | 164 | 152 | 65 | 50 | 52 | 54 | 55 | 57 | 59 |
| less tax on EBIT | (14) | (14) | (15) | (15) | (16) | (16) | |||
| NOPAT | 36 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | |||
| add depreciation | 50 | 53 | 49 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 |
| less capex | (99) | (51) | (12) | (7) | (7) | (17) | (28) | (39) | (51) |
| less working-capital build | — | (22) | (22) | (23) | (24) | (24) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 215 | (37) | 48 | — | 46 | 38 | 29 | 20 | 10 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 44 | 33 | 23 | 14 | 6 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 334, dividends at 30% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 50 | 52 | 54 | 55 | 57 | 59 |
| Interest at 3.5% on debt | (12) | (12) | (12) | (12) | (12) | |
| Profit before tax | 40 | 42 | 43 | 45 | 47 | |
| Profit after tax | 31 | 29 | 30 | 32 | 33 | 34 |
| Dividends | (9) | (9) | (9) | (9) | (10) | (10) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 13 | 42 | 63 | 74 | 76 | 67 |
| Working capital | 717 | 739 | 761 | 784 | 808 | 832 |
| Net block and other assets | 567 | 537 | 515 | 503 | 501 | 510 |
| Debt | 334 | 334 | 334 | 334 | 334 | 334 |
| Equity | 829 | 849 | 870 | 892 | 915 | 939 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | (0) | 0 | 0 | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 45 | 47 | 49 | 50 | 52 | |
| Investing (capex) | (7) | (17) | (28) | (39) | (51) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (9) | (9) | (9) | (10) | (10) | |
| Net change in cash | 29 | 21 | 11 | 2 | (9) | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 38 | 30 | 21 | 11 | 1 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 3% | 6.2% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹(5) | (112.1)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.