Models
East India Drums and Barrels MBSE 523874Commercial Services & Supplies
₹95per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹95implied FY25 P/E 29.2× · EV/EBITDA 12.1×
Against CMP ₹95.00+0.0%close of 8 Oct 2026
Growth the CMP implies8.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3080%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹68₹150
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹85₹127
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY26–FY30 free cash flow | 34 |
| PV of terminal value | 137 |
| Enterprise value | 170 |
| less net debt | (30) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 140 |
| ÷ 1.48 crore shares | ₹95 |
80% of the value sits after FY30. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 99 | 108 | 119 | 133 | 150 |
| 10.50% | 89 | 97 | 106 | 117 | 130 |
| 11.00% | 81 | 87 | 95 | 104 | 115 |
| 11.50% | 74 | 79 | 86 | 93 | 102 |
| 12.00% | 68 | 72 | 78 | 84 | 91 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹95.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 72 · 94 · 121 |
| Draws below the CMP | 51% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.67 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.59 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.38 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 0 | 0 | 0 | 271 | 293 | 316 | 342 | 369 | 398 |
| growth % | — | — | — | — | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 |
| EBITDA | (0) | (0) | 15 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 18 | 19 | 21 |
| margin % | — | — | — | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.2 |
| less depreciation | (0) | (0) | (0) | (3) | (4) | (4) | (4) | (4) | (5) |
| EBIT | (0) | (0) | 14 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
| less tax on EBIT | (1) | (1) | (1) | (2) | (2) | (2) | |||
| NOPAT | 10 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | |||
| add depreciation | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 |
| less capex | 0 | 0 | 0 | (8) | (8) | (8) | (7) | (7) | (6) |
| less working-capital build | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 1 | 0 | (1) | — | 5 | 7 | 9 | 11 | 13 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 8 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 50, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | (4) | (4) | (4) | (4) | (4) | |
| Profit before tax | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | |
| Profit after tax | 4 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 21 | 23 | 26 | 31 | 38 | 48 |
| Working capital | (8) | (8) | (8) | (8) | (8) | (8) |
| Net block and other assets | 121 | 126 | 130 | 133 | 135 | 136 |
| Debt | 50 | 50 | 50 | 50 | 50 | 50 |
| Equity | 19 | 26 | 33 | 42 | 52 | 62 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 10 | 11 | 13 | 14 | 15 | |
| Investing (capex) | (8) | (8) | (7) | (7) | (6) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 2 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 10 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 2 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 10 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY25 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 8% | 5.2% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹95 | 0.0% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.