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Model Note · ELECTROSTEEL CASTINGS LTD · 11 September 2026Page 1 of 2
Model Note
Prepared by the reader · not a MarketPing document
ELECTROSTEEL CASTINGS LTD Discounted cash flow · base FY26
ELECTROSTEEL CASTINGS LTD
Value per share, this model₹25
CMP 2026-09-10₹77.90
Difference(68.1)%
Growth the CMP implies45.0%/yr
This note states the assumptions and the arithmetic of one model of ELECTROSTEEL CASTINGS LTD, built on its filed FY26 consolidated statements. The value is the outcome of the assumptions below and nothing else; it is not a fair value, a target or a recommendation.
Assumptions
Input
This model
Filed reference
Revenue growth, 5 years
-5% a year
FY26 (19.2)% · 5-yr CAGR 11.3%
EBITDA margin
5.4%
FY26 5.4% · 5-yr average 11.7%
Depreciation · capex, % of revenue
2.9% · 2.2%, fading to 1.2× depreciation
FY26 2.9% · 2.2%
Working capital, % of added revenue · tax
49.3% · 26.2%
180 working-capital days · effective 26.2%
Discount rate
11.00%
1-yr beta 1.25
After FY31
5% flat · mid-year discounting
—
Net debt · non-controlling interest · non-operating investments
₹1,218 · ₹0 · ₹0 cr
FY26 net debt ₹1,218 cr
Shares
61.82 crore
61.82 crore today
Source: SEBI results XBRL as filed with BSE/NSE, exchange prices; the reader's assumptions.
Projected cash flow to the firm
₹ crore
FY26
FY27
FY28
FY29
FY30
FY31
Revenue
5,918
5,622
5,341
5,074
4,820
4,579
growth %
(19.2)
(5.0)
(5.0)
(5.0)
(5.0)
(5.0)
EBITDA
321
304
288
274
260
247
Depreciation
(173)
(163)
(155)
(147)
(140)
(133)
NOPAT
109
104
99
94
89
84
less capex
(130)
(124)
(135)
(144)
(152)
(159)
less working-capital build
—
146
139
132
125
119
Free cash flow to firm
—
289
257
228
201
177
Present value
274
220
176
140
111
Source: the model; base year as filed.
Every figure is the reader's model over filed numbers · No rating, target or fair value is expressedmarketping.in
Model Note · ELECTROSTEEL CASTINGS LTD · 11 September 2026Page 2 of 2
From enterprise to equity
PV of the 5 explicit years
921
PV of the terminal value (67% of EV)
1,836
Enterprise value
2,756
less net debt
(1,218)
less non-controlling interest
0
add non-operating investments
0
Equity value
1,538
÷ 61.82 crore shares
₹25
Source: the model.
Sensitivity, ₹ per share
WACC ↓ · terminal growth →
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
5.5%
6.0%
10.0%
26
29
33
37
43
10.5%
23
26
28
32
36
11.0%
20
22
25
28
31
11.5%
18
20
22
24
27
12.0%
16
18
19
21
24
Source: the model; n/a where terminal growth reaches the discount rate.
Statement
This note is the reader's own model over publicly filed information: SEBI results XBRL filed with BSE and NSE and exchange price data, assembled by MarketPing software; every assumption above is the reader's. It contains no research recommendation, no price target and no opinion by MarketPing on the merits of any security, and is not a research report within the meaning of the SEBI (Research Analysts) Regulations, 2014, Regulation 2(1)(w)(vii). Historical per-share figures are on the current share count. Where a figure is unavailable the table shows a dash rather than an estimate. Nothing here constitutes investment advice, an offer or a solicitation.
Every figure is the reader's model over filed numbers · No rating, target or fair value is expressedmarketping.in
