Models
EMKAY GLOBAL FIN SERV LTDEMKAYCapital Markets
₹92per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹92implied FY26 P/E 12.3× · EV/EBITDA 7.2×
Against CMP ₹250.95−63.4%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies44.5%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3169%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹76₹123
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹186₹410
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 62 |
| PV of terminal value | 142 |
| Enterprise value | 204 |
| less net debt | 47 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 251 |
| ÷ 2.73 crore shares | ₹92 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 94 | 99 | 106 | 113 | 123 |
| 10.50% | 89 | 93 | 98 | 104 | 112 |
| 11.00% | 84 | 88 | 92 | 97 | 103 |
| 11.50% | 80 | 83 | 87 | 91 | 96 |
| 12.00% | 76 | 79 | 82 | 86 | 90 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹250.95; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 72 · 91 · 113 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.82 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.37 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.37 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 203 | 282 | 336 | 377 | 422 | 473 | 530 | 593 | 664 |
| growth % | (25.1) | 39.1 | 19.0 | 12.1 | 12.0 | 12.0 | 12.0 | 12.0 | 12.0 |
| EBITDA | 14 | 25 | 54 | 28 | 32 | 35 | 40 | 44 | 50 |
| margin % | 6.7 | 8.7 | 16.1 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 7.5 |
| less depreciation | (9) | (10) | (12) | (13) | (15) | (17) | (19) | (21) | (24) |
| EBIT | 4 | 15 | 43 | 15 | 16 | 18 | 21 | 23 | 26 |
| less tax on EBIT | (4) | (5) | (5) | (6) | (7) | (7) | |||
| NOPAT | 11 | 12 | 13 | 15 | 16 | 18 | |||
| add depreciation | 9 | 10 | 12 | 13 | 15 | 17 | 19 | 21 | 24 |
| less capex | (8) | (9) | (7) | (9) | (10) | (13) | (18) | (23) | (29) |
| less working-capital build | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (71) | 14 | (9) | — | 17 | 17 | 16 | 15 | 14 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 16 | 14 | 12 | 11 | 9 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 0, dividends at 67.3% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 15 | 16 | 18 | 21 | 23 | 26 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Profit before tax | 16 | 18 | 21 | 23 | 26 | |
| Profit after tax | 15 | 12 | 13 | 15 | 16 | 18 |
| Dividends | (10) | (8) | (9) | (10) | (11) | (12) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 47 | 57 | 65 | 71 | 75 | 77 |
| Working capital | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Net block and other assets | 1,693 | 1,687 | 1,683 | 1,682 | 1,683 | 1,688 |
| Debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Equity | 381 | 384 | 389 | 394 | 399 | 405 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 27 | 30 | 34 | 38 | 42 | |
| Investing (capex) | (10) | (13) | (18) | (23) | (29) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (8) | (9) | (10) | (11) | (12) | |
| Net change in cash | 9 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 1 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 17 | 17 | 16 | 15 | 14 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 12% | 7.5% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹92 | (63.4)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.